31 January 2007

Final Handicap


OK, that’s enough drivel about shoes and the like. Back to more important things … as in handicapping Presidential candidates. There are now something like 16 people who have officially taken SOME steps to enter the race. I don’t really plan to blog about all of them, because face it … some of them have less than a camel’s chance through the eye of a needle at getting their party nomination, PLUS they aren’t any fun.

But there are a few of these people that are fun, and could sneak away with it. I’m going to mention a couple of them, just because I find them interesting. On the other hand if there IS a particular candidate you see mentioned somewhere, that I DON’T get around to, but you’d like handicapped, drop me a comment, or message, or something and I’ll be glad to add them to the list that I handicap and keep track of. Like I said, I’m a nerd for this stuff, so it wouldn’t add or subtract anything from MY day to follow a candidate for you.


Newt Gingrich:

Summary:
Mr. Gingrich isn’t a has-been. He’s got plenty of government experience, and a solid grasp of the issues. He is an eloquent speaker, when you can stop hating the thought of him long enough to listen to what he has to say. Truthfully, he ALWAYS has interesting ideas. Big, grandiose, sweeping, well thought out, intriguing ideas. That’s the good news. The bad news is …

…He’s a real asshole.

I mean, REALLY.

This is the man that turned President Clinton into a superstar. Why? Funny you ask, here’s the answer: Basically because a man cannot be a superhero without a villain. Newt was the Mr. Freeze of the ‘90s. He managed to single-handedly shut down the federal government.

Analysis:
His politics aren’t NEARLY as radical as you think. But he’d be as bad a President as you suspect. He’s ten times more arrogant and bullheaded than President George ‘dubya Bush.

Which brings us to HOW Newt would get into the race. How’s THIS for arrogant: his publicly stated position is that he’s going to wait to see if the race “needs” him. If he determines that it does, he’ll get in VERY late.

The fucking gall.

Rather than come out swinging and making his case—he’s gonna wait until the hard part is over, and sneak in the back door hoping to STEAL America’s heart.

Won’t bother to get into his infidelity, the crappy way he treated his cancer-ridden wife at the time, or the fact that the very team he led into Congress mutinied on his ass and booted him out of his position of power. There’s no need. The numbers will tell you everything you need to know.

ODDS:

Newt Gingrich gets in the race— 30/1. Ironically, like most of his ideas, there’s a grain of undeniable truth to his approach. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the cajones to bring it from the start, and the country doesn’t actually … “like” him.

Newt Gingrich wins the GOP primary—65/1
If he gets in, it means there really IS an opening. The odds swing in his favor at the instant he publicly announces.

* * * * * * * * * *

Sam Brownback:

Summary:
There’s a good chance you’ve never heard of the good Senator from Kansas. There’s a reason. He’s from Kansas. Don’t get me wrong, I’m from Nebraska and have a love for the Midwest. I even have love for Kansas, having spent a lot of time wandering its roads with my pop as a child. My favorite college basketball team hails from the Sunflower state ( Rawk, Shawk, Jayhawks!) He’s been in the Senate since 1996, hails from the Christian conservative, evangelical feather of the right wing,

Analysis:
Brownback’s role in the race is to appeal to the pro-life vote. Sure, he’ll talk about the war (he’s for it), the right of privacy (although he questions the legality of the wiretapping campaigns), and the economy (he’ll toe the party line about taxes and balancing the budget), but make NO mistake. He’s all about teaching Creation in public schools, and ending abortion. If that’s your thing---this is your guy.

ODDS:
Odds Brownback wins the GOP nomination—40/1
The Christian right is STILL a force to be reckoned with. Without this candidate, the GOP race would be ENTIRELY about the war. He’s going to make sure the “radical right” doesn’t lose the ground they’ve gained over the past few years for lack of exposure.

* * * * * * * * * *

Chuck Hagel:

Summary:
Here’s where the Republican race gets downright interesting. YEP, he’s from Nebraska. And as a matter of full disclosure, I voted for him when he first ran for the Senate. So far, I have NEVER regretted it. He’s a Nebraskan through and through. He’s loud and passionate, even when it means isolating his party. He’s the one you hear bitching about the war, FROM THE REPUBLICAN SIDE OF THE AISLE.

Don’t get it twisted, Hagel IS a conservative. Small government, low taxes, personal responsibility, the whole nine. BUT … second to McCain, he’s going to have the strongest voice on military issues, earned from tours as a ground pounder in Vietnam.

Analysis:
Senator Hagel would get into the race just to piss off the conservative right wing, and the warmongers. He’d represent the traditional Republican party--the George Bush I conservatives. They are the practical, logical, cunning ones that I find myself agreeing with about some issues. The ones that keep me from being a Democrat, as much as the Jesus freaks keep me from being a Republican. Here’s the thing, he has the Lieberman problem. He’d do MUCH better in the general election than he’ll ever do in the primary. And here’s a piece of analysis you’re not going to get anywhere else: I haven’t really talked about the race, or gender cards that are SURE to be a factor in a race where the two big candidates on the donkey side are a cold white chic, and a black guy who’s middle name is Osama--Hagel can steal the white, male, on the fence vote that leaves the Democratic party if either of those two win the nod. He’s a threat.

ODDS:
Hagel gets into the race—12/1
Hagel wins the GOP nomination—35/1
There are still a LOT of disgruntled Republicans who’d jump at the chance to vote for a secular candidate. If he can generate the money to get his message out—which shouldn’t be hard for an anti-Iraq war Republican—Senator Hagel can make quite a splash.

* * * * * * * * * *

Bill Richardson:

Summary:
On the Democratic side, THIS is the candidate with the most experience. He’s been a Congressman, UN Ambassador, Secretary of Energy, negotiator with North Korea, Chairman of the DNC, President of the Governor’s association, and obviously … Governor of New Mexico. He’s smart. Really smart, and funny, and articulate, and he comes across as genuine. He’s got plenty of seemingly good ideas, but he’s broke by this year’s standards. He’s a GOVERNOR … which equates to a head-start in Presidential politics. “Ye olde public” doesn’t really look to the Senate when its time to elect a President. We tend to prefer people who have actually “run” a government before. But still, a campaign year that looks like its going to cost $500M to win the election---isn’t a year to be experiencing a cash flow problem.

Analysis:
Politically, Gov. Richardson will be a handful. He’s not a typical ‘liberal.’ He’s pro-gun, among other “western Democratic” principles. He’s a VERY worthy debater, and could make a LOT of headway in the early debates. He won’t do very well in Iowa, but could be a surprise in Nevada. That could give him a big boost going into some of the Southern primaries. There aren’t really a ton of Western candidates going South to compare him to. But some of the values are similar, so it should be VERY interesting. He’s Hispanic, which will create some interesting primary splits in the electorate.

ODDS:

Bill Richardson wins the Democratic nomination—20/1
This might seem really short, BUT governors do pretty well. I’m not sure how he overcomes the money thing, but his resume will play well. He’s a very non-threatening minority, which could ALSO play in his favor stacked up against Hill and Barack.

* * * * * * * * * *


Dennis Kucinich:

Summary:
It actually aggravates my carpal tunnel syndrome to type long blogs like this—a sacrifice I’m willing to make to express reasonable thoughts. Discussing Kucinich isn’t a useful risk. He’s below Al Sharpton on the list of probables. But he’s in the race.

Analysis:
Dennis Kucinich is too weird to win.

ODDS:
Dennis Kucinich wins the Democratic nomination—500/1

* * * * * * * * * *

THE DARK HORSE



Mike Huckabee:

Summary:
He’s a Baptist minister, governor of Arkansas, and lost a TON of weight to make the point that America needs to be healthier. He’s from Hope, like Slick Willie, and he’s smooooth with it. I’ve read his platforms extensively, listened to him speak on about four occasions, and read most of his book. I don’t agree with a fucking thing he says he stands for, BUT I Really like this guy. He comes across as sincere, even when he’s saying something I think is complete and utter bullshit. That’s a gift, and it apparently comes from nursing on formula made with Hope, Arkansas water. He has the increasingly rare gift of coming across as non-condescending.

Analysis:
Policy-wise, this guy is pretty far right. But he’s got the silver tongue that makes it come out sounding a LOT less conservative than it is. Think---Dubya’s ideas spoken by Clinton.

He’s from the South which gives him a HUGE base. He’s a governor, who by ALL accounts did an outstanding job ( not hard to do when you’re #49 in most categories, but that’s not going to be in the stump speech) and the public likes successful governors. He’s conservative, but manages to not SOUND preachy, even though he has the legitimate pedigree to stand in a pulpit.

That’s going to play well with the religious right, and THAT group is going to need a counter-candidate to the heathen Guiliani, and the secular McCain.

He’ll do respectably in Iowa, not well in Nevada, won’t finish dead last in New Hampshire, and start to pick up a bit of steam in South Carolina. He’ll do well on Super Tuesday, and generally well in the South.

He won’t do terribly well in the Western States, BUT could fashion a well received message that resonates in the upper Middle States like Indiana, Ohio, and Illinois.

Entering the convention, he’ll have a stack of delegates to bargain with. If the nomination is truly out of reach, he’s a viable VP candidate because he brings the South with him. I expect him to make one of the better speeches at the GOP convention, and to end up at the very LEAST with a good Cabinet level position.


ODDS:
Huckabee wins the GOP nomination—(DARK HORSE BET) 17/1

* * * * * * * * * *

OK, that’s it for this episode. The election is a loooooong way off. There’ll be more to say some other time. Enjoy the game.

Peace,
--Stew.

27 January 2007

The Extendeds


(This picture isn't even "most" of us. It's just those who happened to be at 611 at that moment.)



I rarely think about my family as extending beyond my mother/father/sister. I’m wrong for this because there are some fantastically wonderful people beyond this little collective. I’m one of those people who has an extremely big extended family. My father is the second oldest of 11, and my mother has 9 brothers and sisters. Many of my aunts and uncles have five or six children, and I’m at the age where most of my cousins are parents. My favorite cousin is a grandfather at 41. I’m not sure, but I don’t think he’s alone.

Of the two sides … hmmm, how do I say this (?) … I’m much “closer” to my father’s half of the family. They’re centered in Philly, get along for the most part, and have a lot of characters that are an absolute joy to sit down and have a conversation with. As a group, his brothers and sisters have been through just about every scenario you can imagine. And collectively, they’re Invictus. (If you’re new to this blog, that’s a bit of an inside joke, sorry. Maybe one day you’ll catch up. )

More importantly, their conquering souls have become unflappable. It doesn’t matter what problem, or issue, or situation you show up to Philly with, nobody blinks. They’ve seen everything.

EVERYTHING.

Got a new woman, not like the old one? Bring her. She can dredge chicken.

Old one still wanna hang out? Hell, she can come too. She can fry.

Got a new son, new daughter that you didn’t know you had? Bring him. He can jump on the bed with 15 cousins of varying ordinals, under the watchful eye of Uncle Randy, who’s seen this all before, and will just slide the bed closer to the wall so none of the littlest hit the floor and go back to half-reading his book.

Been fighting with drugs, alcohol, or some wacky addiction nobody’s ever heard of? No excuses---bring ya ass home from rehab. We don’t care about that shit. Think you’re the first one to puff, puff, pass? Doubt it.

Cops after you? It’s prolly not a good idea to hide around the children. They’re upstairs jumping on the bed. Want some chicken?

Want some advice? Ask the question out loud, somebody standing in THIS room has been there before, and if nothing else … they can tell you what NOT to do.

Doing good things on the straight and narrow? College going well?? Fantastic! Happy for you. Welcome Home! You might want to avoid the hide-out, and the downstairs rooms for awhile.

I didn’t appreciate this about the Pop side of the family fully, until the boy King “M" and I made our first visit.

This is no Huxtable bunch. These aren’t the Brady’s, or the Seavers, or even the Jeffersons.

This is the crowd that parties with the Evans clan. We know those other people, and some of them came from us.

You can visit them in the Hamptons or whatever, but when they come HOME … to West Philly, they come to dance in the living room at 611, drink in Uncle Carl’s kitchen, and eat Aunt Dallas’ fried chicken.

More importantly, THIS is a group that knows what love is. Over the years, they’ve had some real knockdown, drag-outs, but for the most part, they are ALL on cordial terms. They play cards together, drink whiskey together, dance together, talk together, visit each other, and LOVE each other.

I don’t visit West Philly as often as I should, but that’s completely MY fault. It hearkens back to the very first sentence of this blog, and as I get smarter, my visits will become more frequent. I ALWAYS have a good time when I go to Philly.

By contrast, my mom’s people are …

Hmmmm

different.

They’re from Daphne, a teeny, tiny town outside Mobile, Alabama. My grandfather was a farmer/builder/jack-of-all-trades. He died at the start of my ninth grade year. I miss him. He was a giant of a man, and for my money, he was the only thing that ever tied me to the place.

His children seem to migrate between Daphne and Ithaca, New York – a town I have no real desire to visit again.

To call his children, and my relatives “country” is simplistic and unkind. For those reasons, I won’t do it … although I think it would be the truest moniker. But I’m 34, and I don’t have ONE good memory to relay about that whole half of who I am.

The details aren’t important, except to say that we’re just not close. None of them has ever harmed, or attemped to harm me. I’m sure they are good people, and I credit them as such from afar.

I haven’t visited Daphne since … hmmm, my ninth grade year. My mother still has brothers and sisters I’ve never met. I presume they were in Ithaca when I was came down for the funeral. Or worse, we were in the same room, at the funeral, and no one bothered to point out who was family, and who was just a well-wisher. My life is cheapened for lack of that knowledge.

On Friday, one of my mother’s brothers died. He’s battled a long illness and the family had been expecting him to pass any day. I’m sorry for his loss. Truly.

And I’m going to drive to upstate New York to say hello to my mom, even though I no longer attend funerals. It will be my first visit with her side of the family since I was 13. I’m a bit nervous.

21 January 2007

My Favorite Davinci's Notebook Song


OK,

Enough politics for awhile. I'll get back to handicapping the GOP sometime later this week.

Here's an acappella gem from one of my favorite comedy bands, called DaVinci's Notebook. You've probably heard the song before.

(THIS IS NOT A SUITABLE SONG TO PLAY IF THERE ARE CHILDREN NEARBY, OR IF YOU'RE LISTENING AT WORK ... UNLESS YOU'RE IN THE MOOD FOR AN "INTERESTING" CONVERSATION!!)



Have a great Saturday.

Peace,
--Stew.

18 January 2007

GOP Handicap II


Let’s call this segment, “The Unlikelies.” There’s a group of potential candidates that conventional wisdom is wisely ignoring. But since I’m neither conventional nor wise, I’m going to handicap them because in certain unpredictable circumstances, the unlikely thing is where we gamblers make our money.


Dick Cheney:

Summary:
Whether you call him “Chaney” or “Cheeney” the sitting Vice President is the most experienced, eligible, potential candidate in the country. Period, bar none, without exception. In addition to his current spot, he’s held cabinet level positions, been a Presidential chief of staff, served in the House of Representatives, seen the White House up close in a series of devastating scandals, AND had a front row seat to the current Iraq war from philosophical debate, to planning stage, to execution, to setback, to revised plan, and to the current stage. Largely seen as the “grown-up” brought in to keep his former boss’s son out of trouble in the hot seat, he has seen his popularity plummet during the execution and aftermath of the Iraq War.

Analysis:
Of course, you’re wondering why I’m bothering to handicap him since he has said since BEFORE taking office that he has no desire to be POTUS. And you’re right, that’s been his position since 1999. But things have changed since then, and I want to start by explaining why I bother at all. Here’s a BIG compliment to Vice President Cheney. My cynicism and sarcasm aside, I think he, moreso than a LOT of the so-called neocons, truthfully, honestly, sincerely BELIEVES that the Iraq War was right, is right, and will be right until we win. IF THE NEW STRATEGY WORKS, he isn’t likely to want to stand idly by and watch it crumble because the Dems gain control of the executive branch he has worked so tirelessly to restore to power.

Experience aside, there is something VERY important to keep in mind about this brilliant politician. He never forgets. And he’s willing to walk a mile to address something he thinks is wrong. Two examples come to mind, and they are worth mentioning.

1. Dick Cheney was in the White House during Watergate, and watched the Executive branch, following that fiasco, appear to suffer a tremendous loss of influence, power, and capability to act decisively during the aftermath of that Constitutional crisis. Even though it took him almost 20 years, he not only REMEMBERED it, by most accounts, he has been the driving force behind the seeming mad power grab THIS administration has made to “reclaim” the power of the Presidency. That, my dear peoples … is called a “grudgefuck.”

2. Mister Cheney was the Defense Secretary during the first Gulf War. He had to swallow his pride and watch the promises to the Shiites go unfulfilled. Promises that had HIS word on them. The deal was SUPPOSED to be that if they rose up against Saddam Hussein, the U.S. would back them. But, the terms of the cease-fire resulted in a mass slaughter of Shiites as the U.S. was ‘retreating’ to the no-fly zones. Even the cynic in me realizes that this HAS to take a toll on a man.

But given that past, he’s not likely to want to sit idly by if there’s even a CHANCE he can rescue his peaceful sleep at night.

He’s in poor health, unpopular, he shot a man in the face, his reputation has taken some serious hits, and he couldn’t win … but let’s be real for a moment. Do you really, in your heart of hearts believe Dick Cheney is a man who is in any way daunted by poor odds? I mean really? For that reason, he deserves to be discussed.

Dick Cheney can’t win the Presidency. Period. See—that wasn’t so difficult for me, at all.

ODDS:
Dick Cheney gets in the race—55/1
A seriously unlikely chain of events would have to create this scenario … but strange shit happens all the time. Don’t count out the possibility.

Dick Cheney wins the Republican nomination—72/1
If that chain of events happens, Mr. Cheney will reinvent himself, revert back to the respectable politician he was in order to win back-to-back races as the second-in-command, and throw the convention into a tizzy.

Dick Cheney wins the Presidency—99/1
If he gets into the race, he won’t be coming alone. He’ll have a smart staff, doing smart things, and he’ll distance himself from the buffoonery that has been the mark of these past few years. He’s smart, experienced, Presidential-looking (although I think you’d be pretty hard-pressed to find an American who lusts after the style of President he’d be.)

AND … if he gets into the race, his lesbian daughter, and his new grandchild will be FRONT and CENTER. He’ll deflect that criticism by reminding us all about 9/11, and (hopefully) that there haven’t been any attacks since … and take full and absolute responsibility for the second fact. You … yes, EVEN YOU … will be swayed by the thought, and for a moment, you will forget how much drama Darth Vader has brought to our universe. You’ll forget about wiretapping, and Guantanamo, and library checkout checks, and snooping, and eavesdropping, and signing statements, and mistakes, and “greeted as liberators” and “mushroom clouds” and all the bad stuff and FOR AN INSTANT … you’ll almost consider giving him a vote.

But in the end, not you, and not ONE OTHER AMERICAN will be physically capable of pulling the lever for him.

But it will still make it to the Supreme Court, because Mr. Cheney has POWER, and doesn’t actually NEED anyone to VOTE for him, as long as his volunteers can control the count.

* * * * * * * * * *


Condoleeza Rice:

Summary:
OK, this IS called “The Unlikelies” … so bear with me. This one is going to be a bit harder to articulate. It has two parts.

First, Condie has four personal hurdles that she’d have to overcome, before EVER even getting to the real political issues.

1. She’s a woman. This was going to be a factor in her favor when it was just her and Hillary. She could’ve split the chic vote in half, and robbed a big piece of the black vote. But now that she’s one of the faces of the war, she loses the chic vote to the junior Senator from New York.
2. She’s black. Doesn’t matter as much for Barack, at THIS point, and the Republican party has CONSISTENTLY been more inclined to have blacks in high position, and to feature them prominently. But Barack is appealing to liberals, who actually WANT to vote for a minority, just not a stupid one. And she couldn’t have even beat Barack Obama in a beauty contest BEFORE the war, much LESS a tug of war for the black vote.
3. She’s single, and childless. Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) took quite a bit of flak for bringing this up in a hearing earlier this week. But the marketing teams won’t care. They’ll hammer it home in very subtle ways that would turn the conservative right against her. Ironically, they’d think they were against her because she’s black, not realizing the power of advertising.
4. Did I mention she’s a major FACE of the war? This is a different fact than being one of its architects. There are lots of architects, but being SecState during this war, and not taking a stand against it would KILL a black woman’s chance to be seriously considered in THIS season. It would even hurt Powell, if he decided to run this season, although he’d still win the primary if he threw his hat in the ring today.


Analysis:
Ms. Rice is a brilliant political scientist. Unfortunately, she’s blown all of her capital on this misadventure. In time, she will be one of the most revered and respected political pundits/analysts/authors/experts. But that’s in time, it’s not now or soon. This season, she can’t win, won’t win, and probably won’t run … unless the GOP machine insists. She WILL do what she’s told. Even if she leaps those four hurdles, she’ll spend a year defending an ongoing war, and being poorly positioned to make the case that she’ll have a strong foreign policy.

There’s nothing like having to defend previous fuckups in the area you’re trying to prove your qualifications for to kill your chance at being the hero. She’s actually in a MUCH worse position than a Senator who just voted for authority to wage the war. Ironically, she’d be the woman with the most political experience in the race, BUT I don’t think there’s much a marketing team could do to make her an appealing figure in commercials to improve her public image.

Her lack of children would be noticeable, her lack of a husband would make her look odd at public events. Even a single man would have a problem getting elected. Even if you hate your wife, you need her on stage with you, holding your hand, and waving to the crowd for the “happy couple” images.

A girlfriend won’t do for a man, and since Conde’s straight, a girlfriend wouldn’t help her either. Having a stand-in guy would bring all sorts of weird sexual questions to the forefront, and this is a set of stereotypes that she’d have a HARD time overcoming.

There ARE a lot of powerful men who would be more than willing to stand in her corner, but that would just make her look like a puppet, exactly the WRONG image for the woman trying to smash both the color AND gender barriers in one swing for the fences.

Luckily, Conde’s not interested in being President. She wants to run the NFL, and based on what I’ve seen with instant replay this year, I’m one who hopes she gets the job.

For the record, I admire her accomplishments, and think she’s an amazing person.


ODDS:
Condoleeza Rice gets in the race—50/1
Condoleeza Rice wins the GOP primary—80/1

* * * * * * * * * *

Next time … NEWT, Brownback, and my dark horse pick for nominee.

"Arms of A Woman

So last night, I'm watching a very crappy episode of American Idol. I'm a big fan of the show---mostly because there's singing, and I'm a sucker for a melody. They were in Seattle, and if you missed it, or Tivo'd it, I'm of the opinion that you could skip it, without having missed anything important. Except for ONE MOMENT.

There was this ... guy.

He had the usual sob story that gets you a few minutes of television time. I don't remember his name, and have no desire to look it up, because it won't matter to me unless he makes the final 10. What IS important was that when his moment came, he sang a few bars of a song that stopped me dead in my tracks!

I'd never heard it, but I of course had to go download it, and listen to the whole thing.

And it's been stuck in my head all day. I'm sure it's famous, and I'm out of the loop ... but I've never heard it before. And since I know EVERYBODY watches AI, I know you saw it too.

The Song is called "Arms of a Woman," the artist is Amos Lee, who I'm not familiar with yet, but I'll be an expert on by this time next week. And the song is just ... well, hit play.







Did it move you like it moved me?

Peace,
--Stew.

GOP Handicap Part I


There are as many as 17 people who are believed to be either considering, or planning for a run for the GOP nomination. I doubt I’m going to handicap all of them. Some are either the purveyor or recipient of a pipe dream. But there ARE some VERY interesting scenarios, and philosophical issues to be resolved between now and November of 2008.

John McCain:

Summary:
McCain has stellar political credentials. He’s the son and grandson of Full Admirals, a Combat Veteran, former POW, former Congressman, and has been in the U.S. Senate since 1986. He has always been a very popular politician, and ran against President Bush in the 2000 primary.

He sponsored the Campaign Reform Act, which led to the Swift Boaters that sunk Kerry, among other important legislation.

Analysis:
OK, McCain as a person pretty much rocks. I could go into a bunch of detail about the pros and cons of his candidacy … but very little of it matters.

Here’s what you need to consider in the handicapping of McCain.

He’s Old.

If he wins, he’ll be 72 on inauguration day. That’s three years older than President Reagan was, and it’s going to hurt him if he makes it to the general election. It would make him the OLDEST president EVER.

Essentially, voters are selecting his vice president to run the country, and they’re not going to do it. 2000 was his year to shine. He missed the boat, sadly. President Reagan was able to diffuse the age issue with a brilliant one-liner against Mondale in one of their debates:

“I refuse to take advantage of my opponent’s youth, and inexperience.”

It was a fantastic one-liner … but it won’t help McCain.

Reagan turned out to be too old to run the country late in his second term, and quite probably was telling the truth about “not remembering” when questioned about his involvement and knowledge of the Iran Contra affair.

The voters probably don’t remember that, but the marketing teams will, and you can expect to hear about the age issue, and much more effectively than you ever heard about it during the Reagan seasons.

Plus, even though Rove is gone, the lessons he taught will stick around, and if you could effectively smear him out of the race once, it can be done again.

The other issue that will impact McCain’s campaign more than any other is Iraq.

He’s pretty much standing alone (at least among non-lame duck politicians) in supporting a troops surge.

If it goes badly, he’ll be able to say they did it too late, but he’ll still get creamed with it in every debate, and every television interview. If it goes well, he won’t get the credit for it, because people will still be upset about the additional loss of life.

Aside from the war, he’s upset a lot of the religious conservative base. Which might not play against him in the general election, but could keep him from getting out of the primaries. He WILL be a strong candidate, in any event.

ODDS:
McCain wins the GOP nomination—9/1
With the Iraq problem likely to be unresolved for the majority of this campaign, McCain will spend a good deal of time defending his position on an ongoing issue that people disagree with him about.

He’ll get a lot of flak for campaign finance, but will do well with his economic platform. For a conundrum, he’s an environmentalist, and a hawk. That’s not going to play well to the war-weary public. On the GOP side, 9/1 isn’t a bad set of odds.

The field is likely to be big, the races are likely to be varied and close. He’ll be in the game until after super-Tuesday, and will enter the convention with a considerable number of votes.

He’ll run a smart, somewhat blunt campaign that will be reminiscent of Dubya’s “agree or disagree, you always know where I stand” positioning. He’ll play well to the non-religious parts of the conservative base, and draw a fair number of moderates.

Gamblers, bet on him to win the races he’s expected to, and do well in the races he’s not. Watch VERY closely as he makes his VP pick, because THAT person will come under more scrutiny than Senator McCain himself.

Also, watch the Senator’s health DURING the race. A political campaign is physically challenging, and even though he’s in good health, there’s a lot of speechifying and climate changes between here, and winning the White House.


* * * * * * * * * *


Rudy Giuliani:

Summary:
America’s mayor is throwing his hat in the ring. This is gonna be a LOT of fun to watch. His credentials are a career fighting crime and corruption as an attorney in the New York justice department, and a successful, if spotted record as Mayor of New York City. His shining moment was the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on 9/11. His leadership and influence were a guide to American domestic reaction and response, and he was instantly catapulted to national prominence by his behavior in the hours following that tragedy.

Analysis:
Having Giuliani in this race will ensure some kick-ass commercials, and some wild times. Rudy is the Bill Clinton of this race, scandal-wise.

He’s obviously a very good administrator. Crime plummeted on his watch in the Big Apple, he cleaned the city up, and brought in lots of great industry/commerce. But pre-9/11, he wasn’t a terribly popular guy in Gotham. He’ll be easier to rip apart than just about any candidate in recent history.

Let’s count the “big” issues, shall we? He was married to his second cousin for 14 years. He’s on his third marriage. He told the press he was dumping his second wife before he told her.

He appeared in public with his new chic (who happened to be an employee), before the spit dried from the yelling matches with his old one.

There’s video of him in drag (from SNL), he lived with gay roommates and supports gay marriage.

In short, before we even GET to the issues that matter, there’s enough fun stuff here to create more funny political ads than you can shake a stick at. And NOTHING pisses off the conservative base more than video of pro-choice adulterers dressed in drag who support illegal immigration. Wait, did I even MENTION that he supports illegal immigration? I’ll get to that.

Don’t get caught up in the personal stuff, though. Like Clinton, Rudy’s no sucker. He didn’t successful run the world’s most famous city by having thin skin. He knows HOW to fight, and his mayoral success will play much like being a governor typically does. It demonstrates his administrative acumen, and will cover a multitude of sins. Plus, supporting Rudy is a lot like supporting the troops. If you don’t, you’re just not American. And therein lies the conundrum for the GOP base.

If morality is your number one issue, can you vote for the guy with the dress on?

The answer is no. Not now, not ever. You can like him, he can be the mayor of Sodom, he can be a great leader, he can be all red, white, and blue American … but you can’t go into the booth, shut the curtain, and vote for him, without negating every vote you’ve cast in the past.

Plus … he doesn’t have a base to turn to. New York belongs to the Dems, and Hillary’s running. The South belongs to the religious right, and he’s a heathen. The Midwest doesn’t have any electoral college votes, and the ones they do will go to more socially conservative candidates. The West belongs to McCain. What we have here, ladies and gents … is a man without a home, or in this case … a base. Rudy will be inspiring, articulate, funny, cogent, patriotic, and awesome … but he won’t win much of anything. Gamblers, expect him to be the crowd’s favorite underdog, but just not fast enough to outrun himself.

ODDS:
Rudy gets into the race—4/1
Rudy wins the GOP nomination—25/1
Rudy does respectably everywhere, out of respect for his 9/11 contribution. But he doesn’t catch enough fire anywhere to win any actual contests. He plods along, holding his own in a close race, all the way through to the convention. He loses convincingly, but respectably, doesn’t get picked up as a VP, and fades away to continue his path to billionairehood.


* * * * * * * * * *

Mitt Romney:

Summary:
Mitt Romney is the outgoing governor of Massachusetts. He’s been a successful businessman, President of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympic games, and very close Senate competitor to Ted Kennedy.

Analysis:
You may not have heard much about Romney, which is to be expected. You HAVE probably added to his wealth, if you ever bought a Dominos pizza, or bought a ream of paper from Staples. Congratulations to you. Here’s where every conversation about Governor Romney starts and ends. He’s a Mormon. Nobody really discusses his politics, or successes, or lifestyle, or even personality. He’s a Mormon. If the campaign team he comes up with can’t find the slogan to get the nation off the topic of his religion, that’s all we’re EVER going to know about him.

That’s not a big deal in a wildly liberal state like Massachusetts, but as the old-times say … “How will it play in Peoria?” My guess is … not well. If he CAN get it out of the way, (which I personally hope he can) Romney could do WELL in this election. Once we get past it, he’s going to have another Massachusetts challenge to overcome. He’s a flip-flopper. And believe me, strategists have been stockpiling new clichés for the next flip-flopper since moments after the ’04 Ohio vote tally was finalized.

Governor Romney is, by most accounts, and extremely likeable and personable guy. He’s got a sense of humor, which I find attractive in ANY Mormon Republican from Massachusetts.

Gamblers, bet on Mitt to finish poorly in the early races, but fund his own campaign to last until Super Tuesday. He’ll survive that day, arrive at the convention bloodied, but unbowed. If they can get past his religious ‘denomination’ … expect parts of the Romney faith issue to resonate with religious conservatives, who may be willing to vote with a man who makes religion an issue at ALL, rather than opting for a largely secular McCain, or homosexual friendly Rudy. Romney’s economic prowess will ALSO serve him well. Somehow, I suspect that his handlers will try to parlay his Olympic experience as foreign policy related, which is a stretch … but beats a blank.

ODDS:
Romney enters the race—2/1
He didn’t pass on a second gubernatorial term to play golf. His father was governor of Michigan, and a presidential candidate. The love of the game is in his blood. He’ll play ball.

Romney wins the GOP nomination—15/1
As this entire party is in a state of flux, its hard to predict where the groupthink will land. If Romney can successfully shape any part of that debate, it could bode very well for his chances. As a governor, he has been able to both stay out of the Iraq debate, AND send troops to help out in the effort. That’s a priceless combination. If he’s smart … and there’s every indication he is … he’ll wait a bit to come out on the record in a big way on the topic, and ride the winning position to the finish line. Again, 15/1 isn’t terrible odds in a race this wide open.

* * * * * * * * * *
more next time....


Peace,
--Stew.

17 January 2007

Pre-Handicap/GOP


Okay … any discussion about the GOP has to start with a bit of context. The party has been through a LOT over the past few years. The single most important factor is that the Karl Rove era is likely over.

Karl is a political genius, and for my money he’s one of the smartest political strategists to ever place a phone call. His strategy for the last two elections was, in a word, brilliant.

Political strategy is basically an advanced form of sales. Any salesman will tell you that the hard part isn’t getting people to think a product is “good.” The challenge is convincingly making the case that the goodness of your product is important enough for a potential customer to take the next step and “do something” about adding that goodness to their life.

In politics, you’re not trying to get a person to spend money on an item, you’re wrangling to get them to “care” enough to actually disrupt their routine enough to not only go to the poll, but to use their vote in YOUR box.

So, the biggest challenge to ANY candidate isn’t garnering public support, its actually getting people to the polls.

Traditionally, about 45 percent of the American voting-age public actually casts a ballot on Election Day. That’s probably worth discussing sometime, but not today … this is going to be long enough without it.

Suffice it to say, in a time of peace and prosperity, the average American doesn’t really care who wins the Presidential election. We’ve had good times and bad under both, so unless the country is perceived as doing poorly, turnout usually sucks.

Rove’s strategy was to draw voters who were likely to vote Republican to the polls by spearheading inclusion of hot-button topics for conservatives in ballot initiatives.

Someone who might not go to vote for a particular candidate MIGHT go to vote against gay marriage, or an abortion amendment to the state constitution. Once there, that person would be faced with the candidates, in ADDITION to the ballot initiative that pulled him to the poll in the first place. THAT decision became a no-brainer, because Rove era candidates ran commercials detailing their positions on those particular issues.

The Rove strategy allowed his party to pull a small percentage of those 55% that probably wouldn’t vote by instilling the idea that there IS in fact, a crisis.

Again—brilliant! I don’t really care HOW you get people to the polls, I think that’s the sales problem for political strategists, and I applaud a good strategy.

Of course, just like an infomercial product, what you get doesn’t always live up to the promise. By 2006, those voters seemed to be disgruntled by the unfulfilled promises of the 2000 and 2004 elections. Gay marriage has spread, abortion remains legal, etc. And in 2006, those 2000 voters stayed home, and the GOP was routed.

NOW … the party has to redefine itself. Is it conservative? Is it pro-war? Is it fiscally responsible? Is it about big-business? Personal Responsibility?

From that sort of vacuum, comes … FUN, for me as a fan of the game.

There are as many as 17 people who are believed to be either considering, or planning for a run for the GOP nomination. I doubt I’m going to handicap all of them. Some are either the purveyor or recipient of a pipe dream. But there ARE some VERY interesting scenarios, and philosophical issues to be resolved between now and November of 2008.

I've handicapped most of them, and I'll start with a few tomorrow.

Peace,
--Stew.

16 January 2007

Copping


Ok, so I cop to being more of a Malcolm X fan, both before AND after the hajj.

Respect due to Dr. King, and the whole non-violent movement, I just happen to be from the camp that says if you hit me, and wait for me to turn the other cheek, I hope to fucking break your jaw while you're waiting. There's a time and place for pacifism, and the middle of a fight just isn't it for me.

So now that the lovefest has concluded, I'd like to share some thoughts from ANOTHER one of my heroes.

It's called, "The Ballot or the Bullet." It's a bit lengthy, but Malcolm is VERY easy to read. You don't have to imagine vocal inflections, or homiletics ... just read the words as they're written, and they'll flow just fine ...


"



April 3, 1964
Cory Methodist Church in Cleveland, Ohio

Mr. Moderator, Brother Lomax, brothers and sisters, friends and enemies: I just can't believe everyone in here is a friend and I don't want to leave anybody out. The question tonight, as I understand it, is "The Negro Revolt, and Where Do We Go From Here?" or What Next?" In my little humble way of understanding it, it points toward either the ballot or the bullet.

Before we try and explain what is meant by the ballot or the bullet, I would like to clarify something concerning myself. I'm still a Muslim, my religion is still Islam. That's my personal belief. Just as Adam Clayton Powell is a Christian minister who heads the Abyssinian Baptist Church in New York, but at the same time takes part in the political struggles to try and bring about rights to the black people in this country; and Dr. Martin Luther King is a Christian minister down in Atlanta, Georgia, who heads another organization fighting for the civil rights of black people in this country; and Rev. Galamison, I guess you've heard of him, is another Christian minister in New York who has been deeply involved in the school boycotts to eliminate segregated education; well, I myself am a minister, not a Christian minister, but a Muslim minister; and I believe in action on all fronts by whatever means necessary.

Although I'm still a Muslim, I'm not here tonight to discuss my religion. I'm not here to try and change your religion. I'm not here to argue or discuss anything that we differ about, because it's time for us to submerge our differences and realize that it is best for us to first see that we have the same problem, a common problem, a problem that will make you catch hell whether you're a Baptist, or a Methodist, or a Muslim, or a nationalist. Whether you're educated or illiterate, whether you live on the boulevard or in the alley, you're going to catch hell just like I am. We're all in the same boat and we all are going to catch the same hell from the same man. He just happens to be a white man. All of us have suffered here, in this country, political oppression at the hands of the white man, economic exploitation at the hands of the white man, and social degradation at the hands of the white man.

Now in speaking like this, it doesn't mean that we're anti-white, but it does mean we're anti-exploitation, we're anti-degradation, we're anti-oppression. And if the white man doesn't want us to be anti-him, let him stop oppressing and exploiting and degrading us. Whether we are Christians or Muslims or nationalists or agnostics or atheists, we must first learn to forget our differences. If we have differences, let us differ in the closet; when we come out in front, let us not have anything to argue about until we get finished arguing with the man. If the late President Kennedy could get together with Khrushchev and exchange some wheat, we certainly have more in common with each other than Kennedy and Khrushchev had with each other.

If we don't do something real soon, I think you'll have to agree that we're going to be forced either to use the ballot or the bullet. It's one or the other in 1964. It isn't that time is running out -- time has run out! 1964 threatens to be the most explosive year America has ever witnessed. The most explosive year. Why? It's also a political year. It's the year when all of the white politicians will be back in the so-called Negro community jiving you and me for some votes. The year when all of the white political crooks will be right back in your and my community with their false promises, building up our hopes for a letdown, with their trickery and their treachery, with their false promises which they don't intend to keep. As they nourish these dissatisfactions, it can only lead to one thing, an explosion; and now we have the type of black man on the scene in America today -- I'm sorry, Brother Lomax -- who just doesn't intend to turn the other cheek any longer.

Don't let anybody tell you anything about the odds are against you. If they draft you, they send you to Korea and make you face 800 million Chinese. If you can be brave over there, you can be brave right here. These odds aren't as great as those odds. And if you fight here, you will at least know what you're fighting for.

I'm not a politician, not even a student of politics; in fact, I'm not a student of much of anything. I'm not a Democrat, I'm not a Republican, and I don't even consider myself an American. If you and I were Americans, there'd be no problem. Those Hunkies that just got off the boat, they're already Americans; Polacks are already Americans; the Italian refugees are already Americans. Everything that came out of Europe, every blue-eyed thing, is already an American. And as long as you and I have been over here, we aren't Americans yet.

Well, I am one who doesn't believe in deluding myself. I'm not going to sit at your table and watch you eat, with nothing on my plate, and call myself a diner. Sitting at the table doesn't make you a diner, unless you eat some of what's on that plate. Being here in America doesn't make you an American. Being born here in America doesn't make you an American. Why, if birth made you American, you wouldn't need any legislation, you wouldn't need any amendments to the Constitution, you wouldn't be faced with civil-rights filibustering in Washington, D.C., right now. They don't have to pass civil-rights legislation to make a Polack an American.

No, I'm not an American. I'm one of the 22 million black people who are the victims of Americanism. One of the 22 million black people who are the victims of democracy, nothing but disguised hypocrisy. So, I'm not standing here speaking to you as an American, or a patriot, or a flag-saluter, or a flag-waver -- no, not I. I'm speaking as a victim of this American system. And I see America through the eyes of the victim. I don't see any American dream; I see an American nightmare.

These 22 million victims are waking up. Their eyes are coming open. They're beginning to see what they used to only look at. They're becoming politically mature. They are realizing that there are new political trends from coast to coast. As they see these new political trends, it's possible for them to see that every time there's an election the races are so close that they have to have a recount. They had to recount in Massachusetts to see who was going to be governor, it was so close. It was the same way in Rhode Island, in Minnesota, and in many other parts of the country. And the same with Kennedy and Nixon when they ran for president. It was so close they had to count all over again. Well, what does this mean? It means that when white people are evenly divided, and black people have a bloc of votes of their own, it is left up to them to determine who's going to sit in the White House and who's going to be in the dog house.

It was the black man's vote that put the present administration in Washington, D.C. Your vote, your dumb vote, your ignorant vote, your wasted vote put in an ad ministration in Washington, D.C., that has seen fit to pass every kind of legislation imaginable, saving you until last, then filibustering on top of that. And your and my leaders have the audacity to run around clapping their hands and talk about how much progress we're making. And what a good president we have. If he wasn't good in Texas, he sure can't be good in Washington, D.C. Because Texas is a lynch state. It is in the same breath as Mississippi, no different; only they lynch you in Texas with a Texas accent and lynch you in Mississippi with a Mississippi accent. And these Negro leaders have the audacity to go and have some coffee in the White House with a Texan, a Southern cracker -- that's all he is -- and then come out and tell you and me that he's going to be better for us because, since he's from the South, he knows how to deal with the Southerners. What kind of logic is that? Let Eastland be president, he's from the South too. He should be better able to deal with them than Johnson.

In this present administration they have in the House of Representatives 257 Democrats to only 177 Republicans. They control two-thirds of the House vote. Why can't they pass something that will help you and me? In the Senate, there are 67 senators who are of the Democratic Party. Only 33 of them are Republicans. Why, the Democrats have got the government sewed up, and you're the one who sewed it up for them. And what have they given you for it? Four years in office, and just now getting around to some civil-rights legislation. Just now, after everything else is gone, out of the way, they're going to sit down now and play with you all summer long -- the same old giant con game that they call filibuster. All those are in cahoots together. Don't you ever think they're not in cahoots together, for the man that is heading the civil-rights filibuster is a man from Georgia named Richard Russell. When Johnson became president, the first man he asked for when he got back to Washington, D.C., was "Dicky" -- that's how tight they are. That's his boy, that's his pal, that's his buddy. But they're playing that old con game. One of them makes believe he's for you, and he's got it fixed where the other one is so tight against you, he never has to keep his promise.

So it's time in 1964 to wake up. And when you see them coming up with that kind of conspiracy, let them know your eyes are open. And let them know you got something else that's wide open too. It's got to be the ballot or the bullet. The ballot or the bullet. If you're afraid to use an expression like that, you should get on out of the country, you should get back in the cotton patch, you should get back in the alley. They get all the Negro vote, and after they get it, the Negro gets nothing in return. All they did when they got to Washington was give a few big Negroes big jobs. Those big Negroes didn't need big jobs, they already had jobs. That's camouflage, that's trickery, that's treachery, window-dressing. I'm not trying to knock out the Democrats for the Republicans, we'll get to them in a minute. But it is true -- you put the Democrats first and the Democrats put you last.

Look at it the way it is. What alibis do they use, since they control Congress and the Senate? What alibi do they use when you and I ask, "Well, when are you going to keep your promise?" They blame the Dixiecrats. What is a Dixiecrat? A Democrat. A Dixiecrat is nothing but a Democrat in disguise. The titular head of the Democrats is also the head of the Dixiecrats, because the Dixiecrats are a part of the Democratic Party. The Democrats have never kicked the Dixiecrats out of the party. The Dixiecrats bolted themselves once, but the Democrats didn't put them out. Imagine, these lowdown Southern segregationists put the Northern Democrats down. But the Northern Democrats have never put the Dixiecrats down. No, look at that thing the way it is. They have got a con game going on, a political con game, and you and I are in the middle. It's time for you and me to wake up and start looking at it like it is, and trying to understand it like it is; and then we can deal with it like it is.

The Dixiecrats in Washington, D.C., control the key committees that run the government. The only reason the Dixiecrats control these committees is because they have seniority. The only reason they have seniority is because they come from states where Negroes can't vote. This is not even a government that's based on democracy. It is not a government that is made up of representatives of the people. Half of the people in the South can't even vote. Eastland is not even supposed to be in Washington. Half of the senators and congressmen who occupy these key positions in Washington, D.C., are there illegally, are there unconstitutionally.

I was in Washington, D.C., a week ago Thursday, when they were debating whether or not they should let the bill come onto the floor. And in the back of the room where the Senate meets, there's a huge map of the United States, and on that map it shows the location of Negroes throughout the country. And it shows that the Southern section of the country, the states that are most heavily concentrated with Negroes, are the ones that have senators and congressmen standing up filibustering and doing all other kinds of trickery to keep the Negro from being able to vote. This is pitiful. But it's not pitiful for us any longer; it's actually pitiful for the white man, because soon now, as the Negro awakens a little more and sees the vise that he's in, sees the bag that he's in, sees the real game that he's in, then the Negro's going to develop a new tactic.

These senators and congressmen actually violate the constitutional amendments that guarantee the people of that particular state or county the right to vote. And the Constitution itself has within it the machinery to expel any representative from a state where the voting rights of the people are violated. You don't even need new legislation. Any person in Congress right now, who is there from a state or a district where the voting rights of the people are violated, that particular person should be expelled from Congress. And when you expel him, you've removed one of the obstacles in the path of any real meaningful legislation in this country. In fact, when you expel them, you don't need new legislation, because they will be replaced by black representatives from counties and districts where the black man is in the majority, not in the minority.

If the black man in these Southern states had his full voting rights, the key Dixiecrats in Washington, D. C., which means the key Democrats in Washington, D.C., would lose their seats. The Democratic Party itself would lose its power. It would cease to be powerful as a party. When you see the amount of power that would be lost by the Democratic Party if it were to lose the Dixiecrat wing, or branch, or element, you can see where it's against the interests of the Democrats to give voting rights to Negroes in states where the Democrats have been in complete power and authority ever since the Civil War. You just can't belong to that Party without analyzing it.

I say again, I'm not anti-Democrat, I'm not anti Republican, I'm not anti-anything. I'm just questioning their sincerity, and some of the strategy that they've been using on our people by promising them promises that they don't intend to keep. When you keep the Democrats in power, you're keeping the Dixiecrats in power. I doubt that my good Brother Lomax will deny that. A vote for a Democrat is a vote for a Dixiecrat. That's why, in 1964, it's time now for you and me to become more politically mature and realize what the ballot is for; what we're sup posed to get when we cast a ballot; and that if we don't cast a ballot, it's going to end up in a situation where we're going to have to cast a bullet. It's either a ballot or a bullet.

In the North, they do it a different way. They have a system that's known as gerrymandering, whatever that means. It means when Negroes become too heavily concentrated in a certain area, and begin to gain too much political power, the white man comes along and changes the district lines. You may say, "Why do you keep saying white man?" Because it's the white man who does it. I haven't ever seen any Negro changing any lines. They don't let him get near the line. It's the white man who does this. And usually, it's the white man who grins at you the most, and pats you on the back, and is supposed to be your friend. He may be friendly, but he's not your friend.

So, what I'm trying to impress upon you, in essence, is this: You and I in America are faced not with a segregationist conspiracy, we're faced with a government conspiracy. Everyone who's filibustering is a senator -- that's the government. Everyone who's finagling in Washington, D.C., is a congressman -- that's the government. You don't have anybody putting blocks in your path but people who are a part of the government. The same government that you go abroad to fight for and die for is the government that is in a conspiracy to deprive you of your voting rights, deprive you of your economic opportunities, deprive you of decent housing, deprive you of decent education. You don't need to go to the employer alone, it is the government itself, the government of America, that is responsible for the oppression and exploitation and degradation of black people in this country. And you should drop it in their lap. This government has failed the Negro. This so-called democracy has failed the Negro. And all these white liberals have definitely failed the Negro.

So, where do we go from here? First, we need some friends. We need some new allies. The entire civil-rights struggle needs a new interpretation, a broader interpretation. We need to look at this civil-rights thing from another angle -- from the inside as well as from the outside. To those of us whose philosophy is black nationalism, the only way you can get involved in the civil-rights struggle is give it a new interpretation. That old interpretation excluded us. It kept us out. So, we're giving a new interpretation to the civil-rights struggle, an interpretation that will enable us to come into it, take part in it. And these handkerchief-heads who have been dillydallying and pussy footing and compromising -- we don't intend to let them pussyfoot and dillydally and compromise any longer.

How can you thank a man for giving you what's already yours? How then can you thank him for giving you only part of what's already yours? You haven't even made progress, if what's being given to you, you should have had already. That's not progress. And I love my Brother Lomax, the way he pointed out we're right back where we were in 1954. We're not even as far up as we were in 1954. We're behind where we were in 1954. There's more segregation now than there was in 1954. There's more racial animosity, more racial hatred, more racial violence today in 1964, than there was in 1954. Where is the progress?

And now you're facing a situation where the young Negro's coming up. They don't want to hear that "turn the-other-cheek" stuff, no. In Jacksonville, those were teenagers, they were throwing Molotov cocktails. Negroes have never done that before. But it shows you there's a new deal coming in. There's new thinking coming in. There's new strategy coming in. It'll be Molotov cocktails this month, hand grenades next month, and something else next month. It'll be ballots, or it'll be bullets. It'll be liberty, or it will be death. The only difference about this kind of death -- it'll be reciprocal. You know what is meant by "reciprocal"? That's one of Brother Lomax's words, I stole it from him. I don't usually deal with those big words because I don't usually deal with big people. I deal with small people. I find you can get a whole lot of small people and whip hell out of a whole lot of big people. They haven't got anything to lose, and they've got every thing to gain. And they'll let you know in a minute: "It takes two to tango; when I go, you go."

The black nationalists, those whose philosophy is black nationalism, in bringing about this new interpretation of the entire meaning of civil rights, look upon it as meaning, as Brother Lomax has pointed out, equality of opportunity. Well, we're justified in seeking civil rights, if it means equality of opportunity, because all we're doing there is trying to collect for our investment. Our mothers and fathers invested sweat and blood. Three hundred and ten years we worked in this country without a dime in return -- I mean without a dime in return. You let the white man walk around here talking about how rich this country is, but you never stop to think how it got rich so quick. It got rich because you made it rich.

You take the people who are in this audience right now. They're poor, we're all poor as individuals. Our weekly salary individually amounts to hardly anything. But if you take the salary of everyone in here collectively it'll fill up a whole lot of baskets. It's a lot of wealth. If you can collect the wages of just these people right here for a year, you'll be rich -- richer than rich. When you look at it like that, think how rich Uncle Sam had to become, not with this handful, but millions of black people. Your and my mother and father, who didn't work an eight-hour shift, but worked from "can't see" in the morning until "can't see" at night, and worked for nothing, making the white man rich, making Uncle Sam rich.

This is our investment. This is our contribution -- our blood. Not only did we give of our free labor, we gave of our blood. Every time he had a call to arms, we were the first ones in uniform. We died on every battlefield the white man had. We have made a greater sacrifice than anybody who's standing up in America today. We have made a greater contribution and have collected less. Civil rights, for those of us whose philosophy is black nationalism, means: "Give it to us now. Don't wait for next year. Give it to us yesterday, and that's not fast enough."

I might stop right here to point out one thing. When ever you're going after something that belongs to you, anyone who's depriving you of the right to have it is a criminal. Understand that. Whenever you are going after something that is yours, you are within your legal rights to lay claim to it. And anyone who puts forth any effort to deprive you of that which is yours, is breaking the law, is a criminal. And this was pointed out by the Supreme Court decision. It outlawed segregation. Which means segregation is against the law. Which means a segregationist is breaking the law. A segregationist is a criminal. You can't label him as anything other than that. And when you demonstrate against segregation, the law is on your side. The Supreme Court is on your side.

Now, who is it that opposes you in carrying out the law? The police department itself. With police dogs and clubs. Whenever you demonstrate against segregation, whether it is segregated education, segregated housing, or anything else, the law is on your side, and anyone who stands in the way is not the law any longer. They are breaking the law, they are not representatives of the law. Any time you demonstrate against segregation and a man has the audacity to put a police dog on you, kill that dog, kill him, I'm telling you, kill that dog. I say it, if they put me in jail tomorrow, kill that dog. Then you'll put a stop to it. Now, if these white people in here don't want to see that kind of action, get down and tell the mayor to tell the police department to pull the dogs in. That's all you have to do. If you don't do it, someone else will.

If you don't take this kind of stand, your little children will grow up and look at you and think "shame." If you don't take an uncompromising stand -- I don't mean go out and get violent; but at the same time you should never be nonviolent unless you run into some nonviolence. I'm nonviolent with those who are nonviolent with me. But when you drop that violence on me, then you've made me go insane, and I'm not responsible for what I do. And that's the way every Negro should get. Any time you know you're within the law, within your legal rights, within your moral rights, in accord with justice, then die for what you believe in. But don't die alone. Let your dying be reciprocal. This is what is meant by equality. What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

When we begin to get in this area, we need new fiends, we need new allies. We need to expand the civil-rights struggle to a higher level--to the level of human rights. Whenever you are in a civil-rights struggle, whether you know it or not, you are confining yourself to the jurisdiction of Uncle Sam. No one from the outside world can speak out in your behalf as long as your struggle is a civil-rights struggle. Civil rights comes within the domestic affairs of this country. All of our African brothers and our Asian brothers and our Latin-American brothers cannot open their mouths and interfere in the domestic affairs of the United States. And as long as it's civil rights, this comes under the jurisdiction of Uncle Sam.

But the United Nations has what's known as the charter of human rights, it has a committee that deals in human rights. You may wonder why all of the atrocities that have been committed in Africa and in Hungary and in Asia and in Latin America are brought before the UN, and the Negro problem is never brought before the UN. This is part of the conspiracy. This old,~ tricky, blue eyed liberal who is supposed to be your and my friend, supposed to be in our corner, supposed to be subsidizing our struggle, and supposed to be acting in the capacity of an adviser, never tells you anything about human rights. They keep you wrapped up in civil rights. And you spend so much time barking up the civil-rights tree, you don't even know there's a human-rights tree on the same floor.

When you expand the civil-rights struggle to the level of human rights, you can then take the case of the black man in this country before the nations in the UN. You can take it before the General Assembly. You can take Uncle Sam before a world court. But the only level you can do it on is the level of human rights. Civil rights keeps you under his restrictions, under his jurisdiction. Civil rights keeps you in his pocket. Civil rights means you're asking Uncle Sam to treat you right. Human rights are some thing you were born with. Human rights are your God given rights. Human rights are the rights that are recognized by all nations of this earth. And any time any one violates your human rights, you can take them to the world court. Uncle Sam's hands are dripping with blood, dripping with the blood of the black man in this country. He's the earth's number-one hypocrite. He has the audacity -- yes, he has -- imagine him posing as the leader of the free world. The free world! And you over here singing "We Shall Overcome." Expand the civil-rights struggle to the level of human rights, take it into the United Nations, where our African brothers can throw their weight on our side, where our Asian brothers can throw their weight on our side, where our Latin-American brothers can throw their weight on our side, and where 800 million Chinamen are sitting there waiting to throw their weight on our side.

Let the world know how bloody his hands are. Let the world know the hypocrisy that's practiced over here. Let it be the ballot or the bullet. Let him know that it must be the ballot or the bullet.

When you take your case to Washington, D.C., you're taking it to the criminal who's responsible; it's like running from the wolf to the fox. They're all in cahoots together. They all work political chicanery and make you look like a chump before the eyes of the world. Here you are walking around in America, getting ready to be drafted and sent abroad, like a tin soldier, and when you get over there, people ask you what are you fighting for, and you have to stick your tongue in your cheek. No, take Uncle Sam to court, take him before the world.

By ballot I only mean freedom. Don't you know -- I disagree with Lomax on this issue -- that the ballot is more important than the dollar? Can I prove it? Yes. Look in the UN. There are poor nations in the UN; yet those poor nations can get together with their voting power and keep the rich nations from making a move. They have one nation -- one vote, everyone has an equal vote. And when those brothers from Asia, and Africa and the darker parts of this earth get together, their voting power is sufficient to hold Sam in check. Or Russia in check. Or some other section of the earth in check. So, the ballot is most important.

Right now, in this country, if you and I, 22 million African-Americans -- that's what we are -- Africans who are in America. You're nothing but Africans. Nothing but Africans. In fact, you'd get farther calling yourself African instead of Negro. Africans don't catch hell. You're the only one catching hell. They don't have to pass civil-rights bills for Africans. An African can go anywhere he wants right now. All you've got to do is tie your head up. That's right, go anywhere you want. Just stop being a Negro. Change your name to Hoogagagooba. That'll show you how silly the white man is. You're dealing with a silly man. A friend of mine who's very dark put a turban on his head and went into a restaurant in Atlanta before they called themselves desegregated. He went into a white restaurant, he sat down, they served him, and he said, "What would happen if a Negro came in here? And there he's sitting, black as night, but because he had his head wrapped up the waitress looked back at him and says, "Why, there wouldn't no nigger dare come in here."

So, you're dealing with a man whose bias and prejudice are making him lose his mind, his intelligence, every day. He's frightened. He looks around and sees what's taking place on this earth, and he sees that the pendulum of time is swinging in your direction. The dark people are waking up. They're losing their fear of the white man. No place where he's fighting right now is he winning. Everywhere he's fighting, he's fighting someone your and my complexion. And they're beating him. He can't win any more. He's won his last battle. He failed to win the Korean War. He couldn't win it. He had to sign a truce. That's a loss. Any time Uncle Sam, with all his machinery for warfare, is held to a draw by some rice eaters, he's lost the battle. He had to sign a truce. America's not supposed to sign a truce. She's supposed to be bad. But she's not bad any more. She's bad as long as she can use her hydrogen bomb, but she can't use hers for fear Russia might use hers. Russia can't use hers, for fear that Sam might use his. So, both of them are weapon less. They can't use the weapon because each's weapon nullifies the other's. So the only place where action can take place is on the ground. And the white man can't win another war fighting on the ground. Those days are over The black man knows it, the brown man knows it, the red man knows it, and the yellow man knows it. So they en gage him in guerrilla warfare. That's not his style. You've got to have heart to be a guerrilla warrior, and he hasn't got any heart. I'm telling you now.

I just want to give you a little briefing on guerrilla warfare because, before you know it, before you know it.... It takes heart to be a guerrilla warrior because you're on your own. In conventional warfare you have tanks and a whole lot of other people with you to back you up, planes over your head and all that kind of stuff. But a guerrilla is on his own. All you have is a rifle, some sneakers and a bowl of rice, and that's all you need -- and a lot of heart. The Japanese on some of those islands in the Pacific, when the American soldiers landed, one Japanese sometimes could hold the whole army off. He'd just wait until the sun went down, and when the sun went down they were all equal. He would take his little blade and slip from bush to bush, and from American to American. The white soldiers couldn't cope with that. Whenever you see a white soldier that fought in the Pacific, he has the shakes, he has a nervous condition, because they scared him to death.

The same thing happened to the French up in French Indochina. People who just a few years previously were rice farmers got together and ran the heavily-mechanized French army out of Indochina. You don't need it -- modern warfare today won't work. This is the day of the guerrilla. They did the same thing in Algeria. Algerians, who were nothing but Bedouins, took a knife and sneaked off to the hills, and de Gaulle and all of his highfalutin' war machinery couldn't defeat those guerrillas. Nowhere on this earth does the white man win in a guerrilla warfare. It's not his speed. Just as guerrilla warfare is prevailing in Asia and in parts of Africa and in parts of Latin America, you've got to be mighty naive, or you've got to play the black man cheap, if you don't think some day he's going to wake up and find that it's got to be the ballot or the bullet.

I would like to say, in closing, a few things concerning the Muslim Mosque, Inc., which we established recently in New York City. It's true we're Muslims and our religion is Islam, but we don't mix our religion with our politics and our economics and our social and civil activities -- not any more. We keep our religion in our mosque. After our religious services are over, then as Muslims we become involved in political action, economic action and social and civic action. We become involved with anybody, any where, any time and in any manner that's designed to eliminate the evils, the political, economic and social evils that are afflicting the people of our community.

The political philosophy of black nationalism means that the black man should control the politics and the politicians in his own community; no more. The black man in the black community has to be re-educated into the science of politics so he will know what politics is supposed to bring him in return. Don't be throwing out any ballots. A ballot is like a bullet. You don't throw your ballots until you see a target, and if that target is not within your reach, keep your ballot in your pocket. The political philosophy of black nationalism is being taught in the Christian church. It's being taught in the NAACP. It's being taught in CORE meetings. It's being taught in SNCC Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee meetings. It's being taught in Muslim meetings. It's being taught where nothing but atheists and agnostics come together. It's being taught everywhere. Black people are fed up with the dillydallying, pussyfooting, compromising approach that we've been using toward getting our freedom. We want freedom now, but we're not going to get it saying "We Shall Overcome." We've got to fight until we overcome.

The economic philosophy of black nationalism is pure and simple. It only means that we should control the economy of our community. Why should white people be running all the stores in our community? Why should white people be running the banks of our community? Why should the economy of our community be in the hands of the white man? Why? If a black man can't move his store into a white community, you tell me why a white man should move his store into a black community. The philosophy of black nationalism involves a re-education program in the black community in regards to economics. Our people have to be made to see that any time you take your dollar out of your community and spend it in a community where you don't live, the community where you live will get poorer and poorer, and the community where you spend your money will get richer and richer. Then you wonder why where you live is always a ghetto or a slum area. And where you and I are concerned, not only do we lose it when we spend it out of the community, but the white man has got all our stores in the community tied up; so that though we spend it in the community, at sundown the man who runs the store takes it over across town somewhere. He's got us in a vise.

So the economic philosophy of black nationalism means in every church, in every civic organization, in every fraternal order, it's time now for our people to be come conscious of the importance of controlling the economy of our community. If we own the stores, if we operate the businesses, if we try and establish some industry in our own community, then we're developing to the position where we are creating employment for our own kind. Once you gain control of the economy of your own community, then you don't have to picket and boycott and beg some cracker downtown for a job in his business.

The social philosophy of black nationalism only means that we have to get together and remove the evils, the vices, alcoholism, drug addiction, and other evils that are destroying the moral fiber of our community. We our selves have to lift the level of our community, the standard of our community to a higher level, make our own society beautiful so that we will be satisfied in our own social circles and won't be running around here trying to knock our way into a social circle where we're not wanted.

So I say, in spreading a gospel such as black nationalism, it is not designed to make the black man re-evaluate the white man -- you know him already -- but to make the black man re-evaluate himself. Don't change the white man's mind -- you can't change his mind, and that whole thing about appealing to the moral conscience of America -- America's conscience is bankrupt. She lost all conscience a long time ago. Uncle Sam has no conscience. They don't know what morals are.

They don't try and eliminate an evil because it's evil, or because it's illegal, or because it's immoral; they eliminate it only when it threatens their existence. So you're wasting your time appealing to the moral conscience of a bankrupt man like Uncle Sam. If he had a conscience, he'd straighten this thing out with no more pressure being put upon him. So it is not necessary to change the white man's mind. We have to change our own mind. You can't change his mind about us. We've got to change our own minds about each other.

We have to see each other with new eyes. We have to see each other as brothers and sisters. We have to come together with warmth so we can develop unity and harmony that's necessary to get this problem solved our selves. How can we do this? How can we avoid jealousy? How can we avoid the suspicion and the divisions that exist in the community? I'll tell you how.

I have watched how Billy Graham comes into a city, spreading what he calls the gospel of Christ, which is only white nationalism. That's what he is. Billy Graham is a white nationalist; I'm a black nationalist. But since it's the natural tendency for leaders to be jealous and look upon a powerful figure like Graham with suspicion and envy, how is it possible for him to come into a city and get all the cooperation of the church leaders? Don't think because they're church leaders that they don't have weaknesses that make them envious and jealous -- no, everybody's got it. It's not an accident that when they want to choose a cardinal as Pope over there in Rome, they get in a closet so you can't hear them cussing and fighting and carrying on.

Billy Graham comes in preaching the gospel of Christ, he evangelizes the gospel, he stirs everybody up, but he never tries to start a church. If he came in trying to start a church, all the churches would be against him. So, he just comes in talking about Christ and tells everybody who gets Christ to go to any church where Christ is; and in this way the church cooperates with him. So we're going to take a page from his book. Our gospel is black nationalism.

We're not trying to threaten the existence of any organization, but we're spreading the gospel of black nationalism. Anywhere there's a church that is also preaching and practicing the gospel of black nationalism, join that church. If the NAACP is preaching and practicing the gospel of black nationalism, join the NAACP. If CORE is spreading and practicing the gospel of black nationalism, join CORE. Join any organization that has a gospel that's for the uplift of the black man. And when you get into it and see them pussyfooting or compromising, pull out of it because that's not black nationalism. We'll find another one.

And in this manner, the organizations will increase in number and in quantity and in quality, and by August, it is then our intention to have a black nationalist convention which will consist of delegates from all over the country who are interested in the political, economic and social philosophy of black nationalism. After these delegates convene, we will hold a seminar, we will hold discussions, we will listen to everyone. We want to hear new ideas and new solutions and new answers. And at that time, if we see fit then to form a black nationalist party, we'll form a black nationalist party. If it's necessary to form a black nationalist army, we'll form a black nationalist army. It'll be the ballot or the bullet. It'll be liberty or it'll be death.

It's time for you and me to stop sitting in this country, letting some cracker senators, Northern crackers and Southern crackers, sit there in Washington, D.C., and come to a conclusion in their mind that you and I are supposed to have civil rights. There's no white man going to tell me anything about my rights. Brothers and sisters, always remember, if it doesn't take senators and congressmen and presidential proclamations to give freedom to the white man, it is not necessary for legislation or proclamation or Supreme Court decisions to give freedom to the black man. You let that white man know, if this is a country of freedom, let it be a country of freedom; and if it's not a country of freedom, change it.

We will work with anybody, anywhere, at any time, who is genuinely interested in tackling the problem head-on, nonviolently as long as the enemy is nonviolent, but violent when the enemy gets violent. We'll work with you on the voter-registration drive, we'll work with you on rent strikes, we'll work with you on school boycotts -- I don't believe in any kind of integration; I'm not even worried about it because I know you're not going to get it anyway; you're not going to get it because you're afraid to die; you've got to be ready to die if you try and force yourself on the white man, because he'll get just as violent as those crackers in Mississippi, right here in Cleveland.

But we will still work with you on the school boycotts be cause we're against a segregated school system. A segregated school system produces children who, when they graduate, graduate with crippled minds. But this does not mean that a school is segregated because it's all black. A segregated school means a school that is controlled by people who have no real interest in it whatsoever.

Let me explain what I mean. A segregated district or community is a community in which people live, but outsiders control the politics and the economy of that community. They never refer to the white section as a segregated community. It's the all-Negro section that's a segregated community. Why? The white man controls his own school, his own bank, his own economy, his own politics, his own everything, his own community -- but he also controls yours. When you're under someone else's control, you're segregated.

They'll always give you the lowest or the worst that there is to offer, but it doesn't mean you're segregated just because you have your own. You've got to control your own. Just like the white man has control of his, you need to control yours.

You know the best way to get rid of segregation? The white man is more afraid of separation than he is of integration. Segregation means that he puts you away from him, but not far enough for you to be out of his jurisdiction; separation means you're gone. And the white man will integrate faster than he'll let you separate. So we will work with you against the segregated school system because it's criminal, because it is absolutely destructive, in every way imaginable, to the minds of the children who have to be exposed to that type of crippling education.

Last but not least, I must say this concerning the great controversy over rifles and shotguns. The only thing that I've ever said is that in areas where the government has proven itself either unwilling or unable to defend the lives and the property of Negroes, it's time for Negroes to defend themselves.

Article number two of the constitutional amendments provides you and me the right to own a rifle or a shotgun. It is constitutionally legal to own a shotgun or a rifle. This doesn't mean you're going to get a rifle and form battalions and go out looking for white folks, although you'd be within your rights -- I mean, you'd be justified; but that would be illegal and we don't do anything illegal.

If the white man doesn't want the black man buying rifles and shotguns, then let the government do its job. That's all. And don't let the white man come to you and ask you what you think about what Malcolm says -- why, you old Uncle Tom. He would never ask you if he thought you were going to say, "Amen!" No, he is making a Tom out of you."

So, this doesn't mean forming rifle clubs and going out looking for people, but it is time, in 1964, if you are a man, to let that man know. If he's not going to do his job in running the government and providing you and me with the protection that our taxes are supposed to be for, since he spends all those billions for his defense budget, he certainly can't begrudge you and me spending $12 or $15 for a single-shot, or double-action.

I hope you under stand. Don't go out shooting people, but any time, brothers and sisters, and especially the men in this audience -- some of you wearing Congressional Medals of Honor, with shoulders this wide, chests this big, muscles that big -- any time you and I sit around and read where they bomb a church and murder in cold blood, not some grownups, but four little girls while they were praying to the same god the white man taught them to pray to, and you and I see the government go down and can't find who did it.

Why, this man -- he can find Eichmann hiding down in Argentina somewhere. Let two or three American soldiers, who are minding somebody else's business way over in South Vietnam, get killed, and he'll send battleships, sticking his nose in their business. He wanted to send troops down to Cuba and make them have what he calls free elections -- this old cracker who doesn't have free elections in his own country. No, if you never see me another time in your life, if I die in the morning, I'll die saying one thing: the ballot or the bullet, the ballot or the bullet.

If a Negro in 1964 has to sit around and wait for some cracker senator to filibuster when it comes to the rights of black people, why, you and I should hang our heads in shame. You talk about a march on Washington in 1963, you haven't seen anything. There's some more going down in '64. And this time they're not going like they went last year. They're not going singing ''We Shall Overcome." They're not going with white friends. They're not going with placards already painted for them. They're not going with round-trip tickets. They're going with one way tickets.

And if they don't want that non-nonviolent army going down there, tell them to bring the filibuster to a halt. The black nationalists aren't going to wait. Lyndon B. Johnson is the head of the Democratic Party. If he's for civil rights, let him go into the Senate next week and declare himself. Let him go in there right now and declare himself.

Let him go in there and denounce the Southern branch of his party. Let him go in there right now and take a moral stand -- right now, not later. Tell him, don't wait until election time. If he waits too long, brothers and sisters, he will be responsible for letting a condition develop in this country which will create a climate that will bring seeds up out of the ground with vegetation on the end of them looking like something these people never dreamed of. In 1964, it's the ballot or the bullet.

Thank you

"

15 January 2007

I Disagree


It is impossible to grow up a descendant of slaves in America, without a great deal of exposure to at least some history of Dr. Martin Luther King. My grandmothers, along with the majority of their generation, kept pictures of him and JFK in their home. I too, am a big admirer of his accomplishments, and his legacy.

Like any man of renown, Dr. King has his detractors. “Critics” point out his infidelity, his real ‘Johnny-come-lately’ role in the Civil Rights movement, question his academic credentials, and introduce the notion of his plagiarism.

(For a fascinating perspective on King’s plagiarism, from a source without an ‘agenda,’ check out: http://www.stanford.edu/group/King/additional_resources/articles/palimp.htm)

Every year, we celebrate the accomplishments and influence of this particular great American. It seems to me, that to fully appreciate our leaders, it’s important to do MORE than just idolize and imitate them. We are best served by exploring their humanity, discussing and debating their ideas, and clearing the context that surrounds them so we can appreciate them not as legends or myths, but as men and women whose actions left some mark on our world.

In THAT spirit, I’d like to put an issue that has always troubled me, namely the use of small children in the Civil Rights movement, on the table.

To understand the premise and genesis of the non-violent movement spearheaded by King, one must be familiar with the teachings of Mohandas K. Gandhi (1869 – 1948). In short, the Mahatma taught that truth is a force, like … gravity, or inertia. Using a concept called “satyagraha,” he believed that the downtrodden could harness this force and overcome bullies, oppressors, and overseers. He very consistently taught that a child could learn what truth is, and at that point could join the struggle.

In fact, one of his tenets against the English was the notion of putting children in the front of the action. His theory was that confronted with the impact of their behavior on a child, the civilized Englishman would be haunted by the barbarism of his acts, particularly of violence.

Dr. King adopted this strategy in the Civil Rights movement of the 1950s and ‘60’s.

I think it’s wrong, and potentially abusive. One of the reasons we shield children from so many ‘grown-up’ things, is because they lack the capacity to make reasoned judgments about their experiences.

I’m willing to be wrong. I’m open to discussion. What do you think?

(originally posted 15 Jan 07)

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