OK, that’s enough drivel about shoes and the like. Back to more important things … as in handicapping Presidential candidates. There are now something like 16 people who have officially taken SOME steps to enter the race. I don’t really plan to blog about all of them, because face it … some of them have less than a camel’s chance through the eye of a needle at getting their party nomination, PLUS they aren’t any fun.
But there are a few of these people that are fun, and could sneak away with it. I’m going to mention a couple of them, just because I find them interesting. On the other hand if there IS a particular candidate you see mentioned somewhere, that I DON’T get around to, but you’d like handicapped, drop me a comment, or message, or something and I’ll be glad to add them to the list that I handicap and keep track of. Like I said, I’m a nerd for this stuff, so it wouldn’t add or subtract anything from MY day to follow a candidate for you.
Newt Gingrich:
Summary:
Mr. Gingrich isn’t a has-been. He’s got plenty of government experience, and a solid grasp of the issues. He is an eloquent speaker, when you can stop hating the thought of him long enough to listen to what he has to say. Truthfully, he ALWAYS has interesting ideas. Big, grandiose, sweeping, well thought out, intriguing ideas. That’s the good news. The bad news is …
…He’s a real asshole.
I mean, REALLY.
This is the man that turned President Clinton into a superstar. Why? Funny you ask, here’s the answer: Basically because a man cannot be a superhero without a villain. Newt was the Mr. Freeze of the ‘90s. He managed to single-handedly shut down the federal government.
Analysis:
His politics aren’t NEARLY as radical as you think. But he’d be as bad a President as you suspect. He’s ten times more arrogant and bullheaded than President George ‘dubya Bush.
Which brings us to HOW Newt would get into the race. How’s THIS for arrogant: his publicly stated position is that he’s going to wait to see if the race “needs” him. If he determines that it does, he’ll get in VERY late.
The fucking gall.
Rather than come out swinging and making his case—he’s gonna wait until the hard part is over, and sneak in the back door hoping to STEAL America’s heart.
Won’t bother to get into his infidelity, the crappy way he treated his cancer-ridden wife at the time, or the fact that the very team he led into Congress mutinied on his ass and booted him out of his position of power. There’s no need. The numbers will tell you everything you need to know.
ODDS:
Newt Gingrich gets in the race— 30/1. Ironically, like most of his ideas, there’s a grain of undeniable truth to his approach. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the cajones to bring it from the start, and the country doesn’t actually … “like” him.
Newt Gingrich wins the GOP primary—65/1
If he gets in, it means there really IS an opening. The odds swing in his favor at the instant he publicly announces.
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Sam Brownback:
Summary:
There’s a good chance you’ve never heard of the good Senator from Kansas. There’s a reason. He’s from Kansas. Don’t get me wrong, I’m from Nebraska and have a love for the Midwest. I even have love for Kansas, having spent a lot of time wandering its roads with my pop as a child. My favorite college basketball team hails from the Sunflower state ( Rawk, Shawk, Jayhawks!) He’s been in the Senate since 1996, hails from the Christian conservative, evangelical feather of the right wing,
Analysis:
Brownback’s role in the race is to appeal to the pro-life vote. Sure, he’ll talk about the war (he’s for it), the right of privacy (although he questions the legality of the wiretapping campaigns), and the economy (he’ll toe the party line about taxes and balancing the budget), but make NO mistake. He’s all about teaching Creation in public schools, and ending abortion. If that’s your thing---this is your guy.
ODDS:
Odds Brownback wins the GOP nomination—40/1
The Christian right is STILL a force to be reckoned with. Without this candidate, the GOP race would be ENTIRELY about the war. He’s going to make sure the “radical right” doesn’t lose the ground they’ve gained over the past few years for lack of exposure.
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Chuck Hagel:
Summary:
Here’s where the Republican race gets downright interesting. YEP, he’s from Nebraska. And as a matter of full disclosure, I voted for him when he first ran for the Senate. So far, I have NEVER regretted it. He’s a Nebraskan through and through. He’s loud and passionate, even when it means isolating his party. He’s the one you hear bitching about the war, FROM THE REPUBLICAN SIDE OF THE AISLE.
Don’t get it twisted, Hagel IS a conservative. Small government, low taxes, personal responsibility, the whole nine. BUT … second to McCain, he’s going to have the strongest voice on military issues, earned from tours as a ground pounder in Vietnam.
Analysis:
Senator Hagel would get into the race just to piss off the conservative right wing, and the warmongers. He’d represent the traditional Republican party--the George Bush I conservatives. They are the practical, logical, cunning ones that I find myself agreeing with about some issues. The ones that keep me from being a Democrat, as much as the Jesus freaks keep me from being a Republican. Here’s the thing, he has the Lieberman problem. He’d do MUCH better in the general election than he’ll ever do in the primary. And here’s a piece of analysis you’re not going to get anywhere else: I haven’t really talked about the race, or gender cards that are SURE to be a factor in a race where the two big candidates on the donkey side are a cold white chic, and a black guy who’s middle name is Osama--Hagel can steal the white, male, on the fence vote that leaves the Democratic party if either of those two win the nod. He’s a threat.
ODDS:
Hagel gets into the race—12/1
Hagel wins the GOP nomination—35/1
There are still a LOT of disgruntled Republicans who’d jump at the chance to vote for a secular candidate. If he can generate the money to get his message out—which shouldn’t be hard for an anti-Iraq war Republican—Senator Hagel can make quite a splash.
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Bill Richardson:
Summary:
On the Democratic side, THIS is the candidate with the most experience. He’s been a Congressman, UN Ambassador, Secretary of Energy, negotiator with North Korea, Chairman of the DNC, President of the Governor’s association, and obviously … Governor of New Mexico. He’s smart. Really smart, and funny, and articulate, and he comes across as genuine. He’s got plenty of seemingly good ideas, but he’s broke by this year’s standards. He’s a GOVERNOR … which equates to a head-start in Presidential politics. “Ye olde public” doesn’t really look to the Senate when its time to elect a President. We tend to prefer people who have actually “run” a government before. But still, a campaign year that looks like its going to cost $500M to win the election---isn’t a year to be experiencing a cash flow problem.
Analysis:
Politically, Gov. Richardson will be a handful. He’s not a typical ‘liberal.’ He’s pro-gun, among other “western Democratic” principles. He’s a VERY worthy debater, and could make a LOT of headway in the early debates. He won’t do very well in Iowa, but could be a surprise in Nevada. That could give him a big boost going into some of the Southern primaries. There aren’t really a ton of Western candidates going South to compare him to. But some of the values are similar, so it should be VERY interesting. He’s Hispanic, which will create some interesting primary splits in the electorate.
ODDS:
Bill Richardson wins the Democratic nomination—20/1
This might seem really short, BUT governors do pretty well. I’m not sure how he overcomes the money thing, but his resume will play well. He’s a very non-threatening minority, which could ALSO play in his favor stacked up against Hill and Barack.
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Dennis Kucinich:
Summary:
It actually aggravates my carpal tunnel syndrome to type long blogs like this—a sacrifice I’m willing to make to express reasonable thoughts. Discussing Kucinich isn’t a useful risk. He’s below Al Sharpton on the list of probables. But he’s in the race.
Analysis:
Dennis Kucinich is too weird to win.
ODDS:
Dennis Kucinich wins the Democratic nomination—500/1
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THE DARK HORSE
Mike Huckabee:
Summary:
He’s a Baptist minister, governor of Arkansas, and lost a TON of weight to make the point that America needs to be healthier. He’s from Hope, like Slick Willie, and he’s smooooth with it. I’ve read his platforms extensively, listened to him speak on about four occasions, and read most of his book. I don’t agree with a fucking thing he says he stands for, BUT I Really like this guy. He comes across as sincere, even when he’s saying something I think is complete and utter bullshit. That’s a gift, and it apparently comes from nursing on formula made with Hope, Arkansas water. He has the increasingly rare gift of coming across as non-condescending.
Analysis:
Policy-wise, this guy is pretty far right. But he’s got the silver tongue that makes it come out sounding a LOT less conservative than it is. Think---Dubya’s ideas spoken by Clinton.
He’s from the South which gives him a HUGE base. He’s a governor, who by ALL accounts did an outstanding job ( not hard to do when you’re #49 in most categories, but that’s not going to be in the stump speech) and the public likes successful governors. He’s conservative, but manages to not SOUND preachy, even though he has the legitimate pedigree to stand in a pulpit.
That’s going to play well with the religious right, and THAT group is going to need a counter-candidate to the heathen Guiliani, and the secular McCain.
He’ll do respectably in Iowa, not well in Nevada, won’t finish dead last in New Hampshire, and start to pick up a bit of steam in South Carolina. He’ll do well on Super Tuesday, and generally well in the South.
He won’t do terribly well in the Western States, BUT could fashion a well received message that resonates in the upper Middle States like Indiana, Ohio, and Illinois.
Entering the convention, he’ll have a stack of delegates to bargain with. If the nomination is truly out of reach, he’s a viable VP candidate because he brings the South with him. I expect him to make one of the better speeches at the GOP convention, and to end up at the very LEAST with a good Cabinet level position.
ODDS:
Huckabee wins the GOP nomination—(DARK HORSE BET) 17/1
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OK, that’s it for this episode. The election is a loooooong way off. There’ll be more to say some other time. Enjoy the game.
Peace,
--Stew.
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