Handicap

(Blogger’s note: Unless you’re a political junkie, this blog will most likely bore you to tears. My feelings won’t be hurt if you skip it, and come back for something more exciting. I’m a political nerd, and this is the sort of stuff that I write, but rarely share.)

Those who know me well, are aware that I love sports. My favorites are football, basketball, and politics … in that order.

The new political season is about to kick off, now that the Democrats have won the most recent championship, known to the rest of the universe as control of Congress.

With that in mind, it’s time to start handicapping the new season.

Today, here are a few of my picks and odds for the Democratic draft.

So far, there are eight people who have either declared eligibility, or are expected to enter the running before the time limit for jumping in the race runs out.

Hillary Clinton:
Early favorite, she spent quite a few years in the minor leagues as Arkansas first lady, before hitting the national spotlight as a second-stringer in the White House. She then took a free agency trade to NY, where she has served as junior Senator for two terms.

Analysis – Clinton is a political centrist, and popular Senator from a staunchly blue state. She’s had the smartest pre-season with an eye on the championship. Wildly polarizing she polls evenly at “we love her,” and “we hate her.”

She’s loaded with cash, having been the expected first pick in the way-too-early predictions like this one. The race that most closely predicts her path is the Connecticut Senate race between incumbent Joe Lieberman and challenger Ned Lamont.

In this gem from last season, Lieberman lost in the primary because he’s perceived as a warmonger. He then re-entered the draft as a free agent, and walked away with the prize as an independent.

Hillary’s brilliant positioning as a pro-war Senator with strong opposition to the ‘execution’ of the war will play VERY poorly with the base she’s chasing because they’ve turned COMPLETELY against the war and will try their best to crucify her to the cross of her past votes for the action. If she can escape their wrath in the primaries she will do better in a mano y ‘wo’mano contest against any Republican in the field.

Expect her to come out of the early primaries bruised and bloodied. Contrary to conventional wisdom, in my view there’s no reason for her to declare any time soon. These early stages of the season are about earning a name for yourself, and garnering as much publicity as possible.

Hill doesn’t need this. There isn’t a voter in America who doesn’t know her by name, face, and reputation.

If there is—we don’t want them voting for either side. That’s part of the path we took to get us to the fucked up place we’re in now.

Odds --
Hillary enters the race – 1/1. She’s getting in. She’d do it even if she thought she couldn’t win, because she’s got too much money stockpiled. It’d be a bigger pain in the ass to try to get rid of it legally than it would be to just run a half-assed campaign.

Hillary wins the Democratic bid – 5/1. Her celebrity assures that she’ll get plenty of attention. She’s the one candidate that doesn’t actually benefit from the reordering of the early races. I don’t look for her to do terribly well in either Iowa or Nevada. I suspect she’ll come in either third or fourth in Iowa, and second or third in Nevada. She should have little trouble in New Hampshire, will tank in South Carolina, and not gain much momentum until Super Tuesday. Gamblers, place your bets on her to place, not win early on.

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Edwards, John:

Limited public servant, Edward served one-term as junior Senator from North Carolina before being picked up as a VP candidate on the John Kerry ticket. Independently wealthy, his strategy is to corner the market as the ‘people’s candidate,’ a moniker reserved for people who pander to the poor. His entire platform is the notion that there are “two Americas,” one rich and one poor.

Analysis -- Coming from an extended pre-season as a litigator, he’s the reason for the resurgence of the McDonald’s story in my e-mail.

Being a southern pretty boy will play against him in the long run, because pretty people always have to fight the perception that they are intellectually shallow. The problem he will face by targeting the ‘poor’ vote is that poor people “don’t,” … as in have any money or vote. And traditionally, it isn’t in the interest of the rich to support defenders of the poor. This race won’t break that trend.

Smartly, Edwards has spent THE ENTIRE off-season hitting the bricks. It will trend VERY well for him in the early stages of the race. Expect him to do surprisingly well in Iowa and New Hampshire, but fade by Super Tuesday … also to a surprising degree.

Another hurdle Edwards will have to face is a startling lack of foreign policy experience. His counter is that the current administration is the most experienced in recent history—and look at the mess they created.

Over a two-year race, this will turn against him, because it will split the vote of people who follow that philosophy between him and Obama, and turn into a popularity/charisma contest between him and Barack.

And let’s face it, his corner gets dark when Barack Hussein Obama walks into the room. He’s also going to have to deal with the residual flip-flopper image left over from his joint campaign with Kerry.

As a professional debater, there’s a chance he could have a sterling moment or two in the series of on-stage discussions with his opponents in the primary, unfortunately, I’m about the only person who watches all of those, and since he’s not a media darling, his soundbites won’t make most of the post-debate wrap-ups.

Odds --
Edwards wins the Democratic bid – 14/1. Gamblers, place your money on strong finishes for Edwards in early races. I expect him to either win, or come a very close second or statistically tie for third in Iowa, finish VERY strong in Nevada, suck in New Hampshire, and start to tank in South Carolina.

By Super Tuesday, he’ll be self-financing, and basically saving face. Ironically, he’s not likely to be a VP pick again because nobody wants to saddle themselves with a one-time loser. Don’t be surprised to see him pop up again in a future administration as an attorney general, head of an agency, or ambassador. He’s a smart guy, with a pretty bright future ahead of him, just NOT as POTUS.

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Barack Hussein Obama:

The media darling and current charisma champion of the race, Obama spent his minor league career in Illinois politics. He won his Senate seat when his opponent dropped out because of a nasty divorce and the GOP replaced him with conservative genius, and perennial weirdo Alan Keyes from Maryland. He exploded on the scene at the ’04 Democratic National Convention with a smart and well received appeal to bridging the gap between “red” and “blue” America.

Analysis—Obama is the climax of the coitus interruptus left by Colin Powell. Back in 2000, after a wildly successful career as the first celebrity Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and hot off one of the most anticipated book tours of the era, Powell walked away from the possibility of being the leader of the free world for no discernable reason. He would’ve won in a landslide.

The country on some level WANTS to elect a minority, but they don’t want a run-of-the-mill black or Hispanic, or woman … they want a rock star with political savvy rivaling Prince, Michael Jordan, or Tiger Woods in their field. The gamble is that Barack will finally let the nation release that long-suppressed orgasm.

For my money, Obama isn’t that guy.

He’s got the rock star part, but his talent is unproven. My assessment is that given the state of world affairs, the public is EXTREMELY hesitant to put another inexperienced leader at the helm. Obama doesn’t have ANY foreign policy experience.

That DOESN’T mean I don’t think he can win, only that if he does it will be by charting a DIFFERENT path away from the Powell comparisons.

There are also early signs that this candidate’s mouth might get him in trouble. Everybody SAYS they want a leader who tells the unvarnished truth.

Listen up closely … THAT IS A TRAP.

Admitting you snorted coke, smoked weed, or committed some other unpopular act will come back to derail a campaign. Hopefully by the NEXT campaign, that won’t be true.

Conventional wisdom says “hey, look at Dubya.” He confessed to being a reformed ‘drinker,’ and won the Presidency.

What conventional wisdom ignores is the logical conclusion of that thought --- “Look what kind of president he turned out to be.”

The general populace still views drug use as bad judgment, and more than ANYTHING … judgment will be one of the underlying themes of this season.

I think that Obama IS savvy enough to work out a strategy that sidelines his confession, but don’t believe it’s a given.

A part of that strategy is going to HAVE to be to make this candidate stop smoking. I’m a smoker, love cigarettes, but I understand the connotation the habit has on a public image. The one thing Dubya DID have on his side, is that he no longer drinks.

Smoking is extremely unpopular in the U.S. And marketing and public relations teams WILL be able to create a perception that there’s a link between past drug abuse, current nicotine addiction, and continued bad judgment.

A presidential campaign is the big leagues, and there are NO holds barred.

Odds-–
Obama enters the race – 1/1. He’s in. The book tour and his rock star status mean that he won’t tease the nation. He’s a smart guy, with smart people around him. He’s a VERY formidable candidate.

Obama wins the Democratic bid – 8/1. More than ANY of the other candidates, Mr. Obama’s vice presidential selection is CRUCIAL. His choice needs to counter his perceived weaknesses.

My recommendation would be a popular, older politician from the South, preferably a former governor. His partner will need considerable foreign policy experience, and strong economic savvy. It would be a mistake to select another Senator.

I expect Obama to steal a couple of the early races, probably Iowa and New Hampshire. He’ll do well in Nevada, appear shaky in South Carolina, and enter Super Tuesday with a strong position but in need of carrying a fair number of states.

In pre-season guesses, he’s the likely strongest challenger to Clinton, but he can be beaten. If he stumbles, he is likely to be make several short lists for VP. Depending on the candidate, he’s a great choice for picking up minority, young, or female votes.

If that’s a weakness for a particular candidate, he’s a smart choice. Gamblers, put your money on Obama in all the races that are too close to call. If no one can tell you who’s ahead, and Obama is in the running, he’ll win. Popularity and charisma ARE the tie-breakers. They bring out the starstruck vote.

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Tom Vilsack:

There’s a good chance you’ve never heard of this candidate. He’s the two-term governor of Iowa. By all accounts he’s an excellent administrator, and has a VERY powerful personal story. He’s an orphan, who overcame a very tough start to life to find success in the Midwest. He’s a virtual unknown, and doesn’t even win early straw polls in his HOME state to take the primary there. He’s officially entered the race, and has a crisp and articulate message that would play well to the general public if he were capable of pulling off a stunning upset and making it to the general election.

Analysis—This IS the sort of race where an unknown could theoretically win. The follow-up race to an unpopular president with a specific issue that has turned the public against him is usually the climate where a wild card can sneak in, given a weak field.

Carter did it in ’76 against Ford, Reagan did it in ’80 against Carter, and Clinton did it in ’92 against Bush the first.

The difference between those races and this one is that there ARE superstars in the running on both sides of the aisle. This isn't a weak field, by any stretch.

Sadly, on the domestic front Mr. Vilsack would probably make the best President in this crowd. Unknown ALSO means he doesn’t come with a ton of political baggage, nor owing a ton of favors to people who don’t have YOUR best interest at heart. People tend to like ex-governors as heads of the Executive branch.

Unfortunately, if you can’t turn the heads of the people who voted for you in the gubernatorial races, TWICE … the rest of the country won’t pay much attention to you either.

He’s unlikely to become a VP candidate for the same reason. Presidential candidates pick VPs who can bring additional votes to the ticket. Vilsack shows no signs of that capability, so he’s likely to not make it to the national stage.

His better bet would be to run for and win a Senate seat FIRST, then use that spotlight to gain a reputation for himself that he could parlay into satisfaction of his Presidential aspirations. If you’re a fan of the underdog, THIS IS YOUR GUY.

Odds -–
Vilsack wins the Democratic bid – 50/1
Vilsack’s campaign last till Super Tuesday – 45/1
If he doesn’t pick up traction in Iowa, Mr. Vilsack won’t be able to earn enough money to run viable campaigns in New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina.

No money=no television ads,

no television ads=nobody knows your name,

nobody knows your name=you get the protest vote.

In the democratic primary, this season isn’t going to offer much of a protest vote. There are enough issues on the table that people can actually pick a candidate to vote FOR, rather than having a group to vote AGAINST.


Next time, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, Wes Clark, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Al Sharpton.

--Stew.
(originally posted 13 Jan 07)