Let’s call this segment, “The Unlikelies.” There’s a group of potential candidates that conventional wisdom is wisely ignoring. But since I’m neither conventional nor wise, I’m going to handicap them because in certain unpredictable circumstances, the unlikely thing is where we gamblers make our money.
Dick Cheney:
Summary:
Whether you call him “Chaney” or “Cheeney” the sitting Vice President is the most experienced, eligible, potential candidate in the country. Period, bar none, without exception. In addition to his current spot, he’s held cabinet level positions, been a Presidential chief of staff, served in the House of Representatives, seen the White House up close in a series of devastating scandals, AND had a front row seat to the current Iraq war from philosophical debate, to planning stage, to execution, to setback, to revised plan, and to the current stage. Largely seen as the “grown-up” brought in to keep his former boss’s son out of trouble in the hot seat, he has seen his popularity plummet during the execution and aftermath of the Iraq War.
Analysis:
Of course, you’re wondering why I’m bothering to handicap him since he has said since BEFORE taking office that he has no desire to be POTUS. And you’re right, that’s been his position since 1999. But things have changed since then, and I want to start by explaining why I bother at all. Here’s a BIG compliment to Vice President Cheney. My cynicism and sarcasm aside, I think he, moreso than a LOT of the so-called neocons, truthfully, honestly, sincerely BELIEVES that the Iraq War was right, is right, and will be right until we win. IF THE NEW STRATEGY WORKS, he isn’t likely to want to stand idly by and watch it crumble because the Dems gain control of the executive branch he has worked so tirelessly to restore to power.
Experience aside, there is something VERY important to keep in mind about this brilliant politician. He never forgets. And he’s willing to walk a mile to address something he thinks is wrong. Two examples come to mind, and they are worth mentioning.
1. Dick Cheney was in the White House during Watergate, and watched the Executive branch, following that fiasco, appear to suffer a tremendous loss of influence, power, and capability to act decisively during the aftermath of that Constitutional crisis. Even though it took him almost 20 years, he not only REMEMBERED it, by most accounts, he has been the driving force behind the seeming mad power grab THIS administration has made to “reclaim” the power of the Presidency. That, my dear peoples … is called a “grudgefuck.”
2. Mister Cheney was the Defense Secretary during the first Gulf War. He had to swallow his pride and watch the promises to the Shiites go unfulfilled. Promises that had HIS word on them. The deal was SUPPOSED to be that if they rose up against Saddam Hussein, the U.S. would back them. But, the terms of the cease-fire resulted in a mass slaughter of Shiites as the U.S. was ‘retreating’ to the no-fly zones. Even the cynic in me realizes that this HAS to take a toll on a man.
But given that past, he’s not likely to want to sit idly by if there’s even a CHANCE he can rescue his peaceful sleep at night.
He’s in poor health, unpopular, he shot a man in the face, his reputation has taken some serious hits, and he couldn’t win … but let’s be real for a moment. Do you really, in your heart of hearts believe Dick Cheney is a man who is in any way daunted by poor odds? I mean really? For that reason, he deserves to be discussed.
Dick Cheney can’t win the Presidency. Period. See—that wasn’t so difficult for me, at all.
ODDS:
Dick Cheney gets in the race—55/1
A seriously unlikely chain of events would have to create this scenario … but strange shit happens all the time. Don’t count out the possibility.
Dick Cheney wins the Republican nomination—72/1
If that chain of events happens, Mr. Cheney will reinvent himself, revert back to the respectable politician he was in order to win back-to-back races as the second-in-command, and throw the convention into a tizzy.
Dick Cheney wins the Presidency—99/1
If he gets into the race, he won’t be coming alone. He’ll have a smart staff, doing smart things, and he’ll distance himself from the buffoonery that has been the mark of these past few years. He’s smart, experienced, Presidential-looking (although I think you’d be pretty hard-pressed to find an American who lusts after the style of President he’d be.)
AND … if he gets into the race, his lesbian daughter, and his new grandchild will be FRONT and CENTER. He’ll deflect that criticism by reminding us all about 9/11, and (hopefully) that there haven’t been any attacks since … and take full and absolute responsibility for the second fact. You … yes, EVEN YOU … will be swayed by the thought, and for a moment, you will forget how much drama Darth Vader has brought to our universe. You’ll forget about wiretapping, and Guantanamo, and library checkout checks, and snooping, and eavesdropping, and signing statements, and mistakes, and “greeted as liberators” and “mushroom clouds” and all the bad stuff and FOR AN INSTANT … you’ll almost consider giving him a vote.
But in the end, not you, and not ONE OTHER AMERICAN will be physically capable of pulling the lever for him.
But it will still make it to the Supreme Court, because Mr. Cheney has POWER, and doesn’t actually NEED anyone to VOTE for him, as long as his volunteers can control the count.
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Condoleeza Rice:
Summary:
OK, this IS called “The Unlikelies” … so bear with me. This one is going to be a bit harder to articulate. It has two parts.
First, Condie has four personal hurdles that she’d have to overcome, before EVER even getting to the real political issues.
1. She’s a woman. This was going to be a factor in her favor when it was just her and Hillary. She could’ve split the chic vote in half, and robbed a big piece of the black vote. But now that she’s one of the faces of the war, she loses the chic vote to the junior Senator from New York.
2. She’s black. Doesn’t matter as much for Barack, at THIS point, and the Republican party has CONSISTENTLY been more inclined to have blacks in high position, and to feature them prominently. But Barack is appealing to liberals, who actually WANT to vote for a minority, just not a stupid one. And she couldn’t have even beat Barack Obama in a beauty contest BEFORE the war, much LESS a tug of war for the black vote.
3. She’s single, and childless. Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) took quite a bit of flak for bringing this up in a hearing earlier this week. But the marketing teams won’t care. They’ll hammer it home in very subtle ways that would turn the conservative right against her. Ironically, they’d think they were against her because she’s black, not realizing the power of advertising.
4. Did I mention she’s a major FACE of the war? This is a different fact than being one of its architects. There are lots of architects, but being SecState during this war, and not taking a stand against it would KILL a black woman’s chance to be seriously considered in THIS season. It would even hurt Powell, if he decided to run this season, although he’d still win the primary if he threw his hat in the ring today.
Analysis:
Ms. Rice is a brilliant political scientist. Unfortunately, she’s blown all of her capital on this misadventure. In time, she will be one of the most revered and respected political pundits/analysts/authors/experts. But that’s in time, it’s not now or soon. This season, she can’t win, won’t win, and probably won’t run … unless the GOP machine insists. She WILL do what she’s told. Even if she leaps those four hurdles, she’ll spend a year defending an ongoing war, and being poorly positioned to make the case that she’ll have a strong foreign policy.
There’s nothing like having to defend previous fuckups in the area you’re trying to prove your qualifications for to kill your chance at being the hero. She’s actually in a MUCH worse position than a Senator who just voted for authority to wage the war. Ironically, she’d be the woman with the most political experience in the race, BUT I don’t think there’s much a marketing team could do to make her an appealing figure in commercials to improve her public image.
Her lack of children would be noticeable, her lack of a husband would make her look odd at public events. Even a single man would have a problem getting elected. Even if you hate your wife, you need her on stage with you, holding your hand, and waving to the crowd for the “happy couple” images.
A girlfriend won’t do for a man, and since Conde’s straight, a girlfriend wouldn’t help her either. Having a stand-in guy would bring all sorts of weird sexual questions to the forefront, and this is a set of stereotypes that she’d have a HARD time overcoming.
There ARE a lot of powerful men who would be more than willing to stand in her corner, but that would just make her look like a puppet, exactly the WRONG image for the woman trying to smash both the color AND gender barriers in one swing for the fences.
Luckily, Conde’s not interested in being President. She wants to run the NFL, and based on what I’ve seen with instant replay this year, I’m one who hopes she gets the job.
For the record, I admire her accomplishments, and think she’s an amazing person.
ODDS:
Condoleeza Rice gets in the race—50/1
Condoleeza Rice wins the GOP primary—80/1
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Next time … NEWT, Brownback, and my dark horse pick for nominee.
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