There are as many as 17 people who are believed to be either considering, or planning for a run for the GOP nomination. I doubt I’m going to handicap all of them. Some are either the purveyor or recipient of a pipe dream. But there ARE some VERY interesting scenarios, and philosophical issues to be resolved between now and November of 2008.
John McCain:
Summary:
McCain has stellar political credentials. He’s the son and grandson of Full Admirals, a Combat Veteran, former POW, former Congressman, and has been in the U.S. Senate since 1986. He has always been a very popular politician, and ran against President Bush in the 2000 primary.
He sponsored the Campaign Reform Act, which led to the Swift Boaters that sunk Kerry, among other important legislation.
Analysis:
OK, McCain as a person pretty much rocks. I could go into a bunch of detail about the pros and cons of his candidacy … but very little of it matters.
Here’s what you need to consider in the handicapping of McCain.
He’s Old.
If he wins, he’ll be 72 on inauguration day. That’s three years older than President Reagan was, and it’s going to hurt him if he makes it to the general election. It would make him the OLDEST president EVER.
Essentially, voters are selecting his vice president to run the country, and they’re not going to do it. 2000 was his year to shine. He missed the boat, sadly. President Reagan was able to diffuse the age issue with a brilliant one-liner against Mondale in one of their debates:
“I refuse to take advantage of my opponent’s youth, and inexperience.”
It was a fantastic one-liner … but it won’t help McCain.
Reagan turned out to be too old to run the country late in his second term, and quite probably was telling the truth about “not remembering” when questioned about his involvement and knowledge of the Iran Contra affair.
The voters probably don’t remember that, but the marketing teams will, and you can expect to hear about the age issue, and much more effectively than you ever heard about it during the Reagan seasons.
Plus, even though Rove is gone, the lessons he taught will stick around, and if you could effectively smear him out of the race once, it can be done again.
The other issue that will impact McCain’s campaign more than any other is Iraq.
He’s pretty much standing alone (at least among non-lame duck politicians) in supporting a troops surge.
If it goes badly, he’ll be able to say they did it too late, but he’ll still get creamed with it in every debate, and every television interview. If it goes well, he won’t get the credit for it, because people will still be upset about the additional loss of life.
Aside from the war, he’s upset a lot of the religious conservative base. Which might not play against him in the general election, but could keep him from getting out of the primaries. He WILL be a strong candidate, in any event.
ODDS:
McCain wins the GOP nomination—9/1
With the Iraq problem likely to be unresolved for the majority of this campaign, McCain will spend a good deal of time defending his position on an ongoing issue that people disagree with him about.
He’ll get a lot of flak for campaign finance, but will do well with his economic platform. For a conundrum, he’s an environmentalist, and a hawk. That’s not going to play well to the war-weary public. On the GOP side, 9/1 isn’t a bad set of odds.
The field is likely to be big, the races are likely to be varied and close. He’ll be in the game until after super-Tuesday, and will enter the convention with a considerable number of votes.
He’ll run a smart, somewhat blunt campaign that will be reminiscent of Dubya’s “agree or disagree, you always know where I stand” positioning. He’ll play well to the non-religious parts of the conservative base, and draw a fair number of moderates.
Gamblers, bet on him to win the races he’s expected to, and do well in the races he’s not. Watch VERY closely as he makes his VP pick, because THAT person will come under more scrutiny than Senator McCain himself.
Also, watch the Senator’s health DURING the race. A political campaign is physically challenging, and even though he’s in good health, there’s a lot of speechifying and climate changes between here, and winning the White House.
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Rudy Giuliani:
Summary:
America’s mayor is throwing his hat in the ring. This is gonna be a LOT of fun to watch. His credentials are a career fighting crime and corruption as an attorney in the New York justice department, and a successful, if spotted record as Mayor of New York City. His shining moment was the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on 9/11. His leadership and influence were a guide to American domestic reaction and response, and he was instantly catapulted to national prominence by his behavior in the hours following that tragedy.
Analysis:
Having Giuliani in this race will ensure some kick-ass commercials, and some wild times. Rudy is the Bill Clinton of this race, scandal-wise.
He’s obviously a very good administrator. Crime plummeted on his watch in the Big Apple, he cleaned the city up, and brought in lots of great industry/commerce. But pre-9/11, he wasn’t a terribly popular guy in Gotham. He’ll be easier to rip apart than just about any candidate in recent history.
Let’s count the “big” issues, shall we? He was married to his second cousin for 14 years. He’s on his third marriage. He told the press he was dumping his second wife before he told her.
He appeared in public with his new chic (who happened to be an employee), before the spit dried from the yelling matches with his old one.
There’s video of him in drag (from SNL), he lived with gay roommates and supports gay marriage.
In short, before we even GET to the issues that matter, there’s enough fun stuff here to create more funny political ads than you can shake a stick at. And NOTHING pisses off the conservative base more than video of pro-choice adulterers dressed in drag who support illegal immigration. Wait, did I even MENTION that he supports illegal immigration? I’ll get to that.
Don’t get caught up in the personal stuff, though. Like Clinton, Rudy’s no sucker. He didn’t successful run the world’s most famous city by having thin skin. He knows HOW to fight, and his mayoral success will play much like being a governor typically does. It demonstrates his administrative acumen, and will cover a multitude of sins. Plus, supporting Rudy is a lot like supporting the troops. If you don’t, you’re just not American. And therein lies the conundrum for the GOP base.
If morality is your number one issue, can you vote for the guy with the dress on?
The answer is no. Not now, not ever. You can like him, he can be the mayor of Sodom, he can be a great leader, he can be all red, white, and blue American … but you can’t go into the booth, shut the curtain, and vote for him, without negating every vote you’ve cast in the past.
Plus … he doesn’t have a base to turn to. New York belongs to the Dems, and Hillary’s running. The South belongs to the religious right, and he’s a heathen. The Midwest doesn’t have any electoral college votes, and the ones they do will go to more socially conservative candidates. The West belongs to McCain. What we have here, ladies and gents … is a man without a home, or in this case … a base. Rudy will be inspiring, articulate, funny, cogent, patriotic, and awesome … but he won’t win much of anything. Gamblers, expect him to be the crowd’s favorite underdog, but just not fast enough to outrun himself.
ODDS:
Rudy gets into the race—4/1
Rudy wins the GOP nomination—25/1
Rudy does respectably everywhere, out of respect for his 9/11 contribution. But he doesn’t catch enough fire anywhere to win any actual contests. He plods along, holding his own in a close race, all the way through to the convention. He loses convincingly, but respectably, doesn’t get picked up as a VP, and fades away to continue his path to billionairehood.
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Mitt Romney:
Summary:
Mitt Romney is the outgoing governor of Massachusetts. He’s been a successful businessman, President of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympic games, and very close Senate competitor to Ted Kennedy.
Analysis:
You may not have heard much about Romney, which is to be expected. You HAVE probably added to his wealth, if you ever bought a Dominos pizza, or bought a ream of paper from Staples. Congratulations to you. Here’s where every conversation about Governor Romney starts and ends. He’s a Mormon. Nobody really discusses his politics, or successes, or lifestyle, or even personality. He’s a Mormon. If the campaign team he comes up with can’t find the slogan to get the nation off the topic of his religion, that’s all we’re EVER going to know about him.
That’s not a big deal in a wildly liberal state like Massachusetts, but as the old-times say … “How will it play in Peoria?” My guess is … not well. If he CAN get it out of the way, (which I personally hope he can) Romney could do WELL in this election. Once we get past it, he’s going to have another Massachusetts challenge to overcome. He’s a flip-flopper. And believe me, strategists have been stockpiling new clichés for the next flip-flopper since moments after the ’04 Ohio vote tally was finalized.
Governor Romney is, by most accounts, and extremely likeable and personable guy. He’s got a sense of humor, which I find attractive in ANY Mormon Republican from Massachusetts.
Gamblers, bet on Mitt to finish poorly in the early races, but fund his own campaign to last until Super Tuesday. He’ll survive that day, arrive at the convention bloodied, but unbowed. If they can get past his religious ‘denomination’ … expect parts of the Romney faith issue to resonate with religious conservatives, who may be willing to vote with a man who makes religion an issue at ALL, rather than opting for a largely secular McCain, or homosexual friendly Rudy. Romney’s economic prowess will ALSO serve him well. Somehow, I suspect that his handlers will try to parlay his Olympic experience as foreign policy related, which is a stretch … but beats a blank.
ODDS:
Romney enters the race—2/1
He didn’t pass on a second gubernatorial term to play golf. His father was governor of Michigan, and a presidential candidate. The love of the game is in his blood. He’ll play ball.
Romney wins the GOP nomination—15/1
As this entire party is in a state of flux, its hard to predict where the groupthink will land. If Romney can successfully shape any part of that debate, it could bode very well for his chances. As a governor, he has been able to both stay out of the Iraq debate, AND send troops to help out in the effort. That’s a priceless combination. If he’s smart … and there’s every indication he is … he’ll wait a bit to come out on the record in a big way on the topic, and ride the winning position to the finish line. Again, 15/1 isn’t terrible odds in a race this wide open.
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more next time....
Peace,
--Stew.
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