Pre-Handicap/GOP

Okay … any discussion about the GOP has to start with a bit of context. The party has been through a LOT over the past few years. The single most important factor is that the Karl Rove era is likely over.

Karl is a political genius, and for my money he’s one of the smartest political strategists to ever place a phone call. His strategy for the last two elections was, in a word, brilliant.

Political strategy is basically an advanced form of sales. Any salesman will tell you that the hard part isn’t getting people to think a product is “good.” The challenge is convincingly making the case that the goodness of your product is important enough for a potential customer to take the next step and “do something” about adding that goodness to their life.

In politics, you’re not trying to get a person to spend money on an item, you’re wrangling to get them to “care” enough to actually disrupt their routine enough to not only go to the poll, but to use their vote in YOUR box.

So, the biggest challenge to ANY candidate isn’t garnering public support, its actually getting people to the polls.

Traditionally, about 45 percent of the American voting-age public actually casts a ballot on Election Day. That’s probably worth discussing sometime, but not today … this is going to be long enough without it.

Suffice it to say, in a time of peace and prosperity, the average American doesn’t really care who wins the Presidential election. We’ve had good times and bad under both, so unless the country is perceived as doing poorly, turnout usually sucks.

Rove’s strategy was to draw voters who were likely to vote Republican to the polls by spearheading inclusion of hot-button topics for conservatives in ballot initiatives.

Someone who might not go to vote for a particular candidate MIGHT go to vote against gay marriage, or an abortion amendment to the state constitution. Once there, that person would be faced with the candidates, in ADDITION to the ballot initiative that pulled him to the poll in the first place. THAT decision became a no-brainer, because Rove era candidates ran commercials detailing their positions on those particular issues.

The Rove strategy allowed his party to pull a small percentage of those 55% that probably wouldn’t vote by instilling the idea that there IS in fact, a crisis.

Again—brilliant! I don’t really care HOW you get people to the polls, I think that’s the sales problem for political strategists, and I applaud a good strategy.

Of course, just like an infomercial product, what you get doesn’t always live up to the promise. By 2006, those voters seemed to be disgruntled by the unfulfilled promises of the 2000 and 2004 elections. Gay marriage has spread, abortion remains legal, etc. And in 2006, those 2000 voters stayed home, and the GOP was routed.

NOW … the party has to redefine itself. Is it conservative? Is it pro-war? Is it fiscally responsible? Is it about big-business? Personal Responsibility?

From that sort of vacuum, comes … FUN, for me as a fan of the game.

There are as many as 17 people who are believed to be either considering, or planning for a run for the GOP nomination. I doubt I’m going to handicap all of them. Some are either the purveyor or recipient of a pipe dream. But there ARE some VERY interesting scenarios, and philosophical issues to be resolved between now and November of 2008.

I've handicapped most of them, and I'll start with a few tomorrow.

Peace,
--Stew.