Handicap II

OK, back to finish what I started. Non-politicos … the boredom isn’t over yet. Sorry.


Joe Biden

Summary:
Senator Biden is EASILY the most experienced candidate in the draft this year. He’s been in the Senate, representing Delaware as long as I’ve been alive, which is to say 34 years—a long time for a Presidential candidate.

He uses this as both a credential, AND a talking point. Conventional wisdom says the Iraq VOTE will be an important issue in this cycle. Conventional wisdom is wrong, and Biden is the reason for that.

In my analysis of the polls, and the media group-speak to date, the voting public is willing to forgive ANY Senator still in power who is willing to NOW step up to the plate to vocally oppose the war, and take any action to publicly put their current opposition on the record.

He has the most consistently articulated alternative plan to current administration policy on Iraq, and has demonstrated a willingness to play the race card to appeal to Southern votes.

This is his second attempt to win the White House. He had a respectable, but unsuccessful run in 1988. He has gravitas, enough experience to ‘be’ Presidential, and a thorough understanding of the “game” of politics.

He announced early, and his strategy is to leverage his position as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee as a soapbox in lieu of a barrage of television ads, early in the race.

It’s a smart move, because C-Span reaches more markets than he’d be able to afford to buy time in, particularly during the early stages of the race.

The ‘average’ voter doesn’t watch C-Span, BUT the people who volunteer for political campaigns, ARE avid watchers (people like me, who blog about politics and elections two years BEFORE election day.)

This is a two-edged sword, because while it will garner him early support in posturing, it will ALSO provide plenty of soundbites for his opponents to use against him in television ads.

Analysis:
Senator Biden will be the candidate everybody likes, but nobody votes for. He’s too engrained in the political infrastructure to effectively play an outsider tactic.

Following this Iraq fiasco, I question his ability to separate himself enough from the failed war to effectively feed red meat to the Democrat left.

My suspicion is that he is comfortable enough with the ‘new media,’ which the old media WRONGLY limits to the blogosphere to make a few stunning upward moves in the polls.

--What the old media gets wrong about the new media is that it is MORE than just the internet. It also includes a LOT of new and very popular television shows like The Daily Show, The Colbert Report, and Bill Maher’s Real Time.

These attract a somewhat ‘different’ demographic than blogs, people who don’t like to read—and like their politics mixed with a fair dose of humor. Political blogs aren’t really all that entertaining, I offer THIS one as exhibit “A.”

But the ability to mix it up with the new generation of irreverent and commentators is a unique skill. I suspect that success in that venture requires a connection with the ‘real world,’ something many politicians lack … AND a local base of support that you KNOW has your back, even if you screw up and say something stupid on national television.

Nobody wants to risk their current job and political capital on a mistake that ends up being the youtube soundbite of the moment. Just ask former Virginia Senator George ‘Macaca’ Allen.--

Senator Biden’s biggest challenge won’t be creating good soundbites, he’s actually quite adept at that. His problem will be finding a sufficient supply of “buzz.”

He’s witty, charming, articulate, and convincing, but he doesn’t light up a room with his mere presence, like an Obama or have the instant recognition of a Clinton.

This is going to be a problem for him. Look for him to finish poorly in Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, and most of the major primaries leading up to Super Tuesday. IF he manages to strike a strategy that gets some traction, and is able to stay in the race, he’ll come out of Super Tuesday with a respectable finish, but no hope of winning the nomination.

“The Public” likes celebrities, and Biden is a blue-collar, career politician. In the end, his experience will oddly work “against” him. Senator Biden will have a difficult choice to make if the Dems win the White House, because he’s a shoo-in for any number of appointments, including Secretary of State, Attorney General, or U.N. ambassador.

Gamblers, don’t put any money on him to win outside of Delaware, and possibly a couple of additional New England states, excluding New Hampshire. Biden isn’t a “front man.” He’s the bedrock type of politician that people like, and are happy leaving right where he is.

Ultimately, he’s unlikely to accept any political appointments, and could see his ultimate power play being an elevation to Senate Majority Leader if the Dems can manage to hold on to a majority in that body.

ODDS:
Biden wins the Democratic bid—12/1

It could happen. Maybe it even should happen. It’s just not going to.

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Christopher Dodd:

Summary:
Every year, there’s some power hungry moron who can’t see the forest for the trees. They don’t have enough money to be in the race, don’t have a bright enough star, or stellar enough reputation to win the race, and they don’t have enough people backing them to do much more than embarrass themselves---but they don’t let that stop them for even a moment.

They want to believe that they should be able to win, so they shoot for it. Hell, this IS America, where “anybody” can be President—except that not one “anybody” ever has. This season’s “anybody” … is Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd. Even though he’s been in the Senate since 1981, I expect Governor Vilsack to do a bit better, possibly.

Analysis:
Here’s a thumbnail sketch of why Senator Chris Dodd WON’T be your next President, or even your next Democratic nominee.

He chose to announce his bid for the presidency on the Don Imus radio/MSNBC morning show. He was all but laughed off the air BY Don Imus. Don’t kid yourself. Imus has a bigger audience than Meet the Press, and he has a proven ability to turn books into best-sellers, and make Kings out of people with enough talent to do fairly well on their own.

Senator Dodd is a funny, articulate, and apparently personable guy. Unfortunately, he’s the third best, fourth most known, and third most popular CANDIDATE in this race from the Northeast (out of four). He’ll have to share votes with Clinton AND Biden. Gamblers, keep your money in your pocket, unless you can find someone to offer you odds on how POORLY Dodd will do.

ODDS:
Dodd wins the Democratic bid—99/1


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Wes Clark:

(Full disclosure: In 1996-7, I worked under General Clark’s command in Panama.)

Summary:
Retired Army General Wesley Clark left the Army after holding two coveted Non-Pentagon, four-star General spots in the Defense Department.. He was Supreme Allied Commander—NATO, and Commander-in-Chief, US Southern Command.

He is one of the most personable Generals I’ve ever known, and smart as a whip. He has a reputation among his fellow flag officers as being a bit stand off-ish, because he’s just not a group guy. They run, play golf, and do stuff together.

He swims. Just not one of the crowd.

He ran a respectable campaign in ’04, but just never caught fire. In an odd twist, he doesn’t have any DOMESTIC experience … which will play against him in the long run.

Analysis:
General Clark is an unlikely candidate this cycle. This IS likely to be the most expensive elections in the history of the universe, and quite frankly … after the Kerry debacle, the money men and women aren’t likely to dig too deep in their pockets for a “possible.” This ain’t spades. Look for General Clark to be on the short list of possible Defense Secretaries, or ambassadors.

ODDS:
General Clark enters the race – 75/1.

General Clark wins the democratic nomination – 80/1


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Al Sharpton

Summary:
If there’s going to be ANY fun in this race at all, this is the huckleberry that’ll bring it. Reverend Al is … well, fun. He’s not going to win, but he has the distinction of being the candidate most likely to actually financially BENEFIT from running for President.

He’s got no money, no organization, no real national message … aside from speaking FOR and FROM a position of being one of the masses. This would be Sharpton’s second run for the Democratic nomination.

If he were to somehow miraculously win, even the weakest Republican candidate would mercilessly squash him. But BOY it’d be fun to watch.

He has no verbal filter, has the ability to embarrass political opponents with a deftness learned presumably by playing the dozens, and a hairstyle that gives late night comedians endless fodder. But having said all that … I really like the guy.

Analysis:
Well, what the hell. The Rev’s a preacher with no congregation, a civil rights activist in a year when race isn’t on the front burner, and a demagogue in a cycle with VERY serious issues on the table. I could not be stronger in my HOPE that he runs.

ODDS:
Rev. Sharpton gets in the race—9/1.
Why not?

Rev. Sharpton wins the nomination—101/1
Don’t get it twisted, in the aftermath of James Brown’s passing, Sharpton could actually do fairly well in South Carolina. This is a relative statement. He did well last time, although he didn’t actually win.

He’s got no shot in Iowa, Nevada, or (God help us all) New Hampshire. He wears a process, has a slew of questionable events in his background, and no money … but dammit, he’s a riot to watch.

* * * * * * * * * *
John Kerry:

Summary:
Hmmm…where to begin? Ok, Senator Kerry has been the junior Senator from Massachusetts since 1985. He is the incumbent Democratic nominee, and should theoretically be a leader of the Democratic party.

Analysis:
Shouldn’t run, won’t win. Senator Kerry has only ONE real political liability.

He lacks a fundamental understanding of public relations.

He has no idea how to pick his battles, and even less of a notion of what to say, and when to say it. People are actually … PISSED at him for the way he lost last time, and he’s already stuck his foot in his mouth with a poorly executed joke that the Republicans immediately turned on him with devastating results.

IF he runs, all his money will go to Hillary, and all of his grassroots support will be split between Obama and Edwards. He’d do worse than Dodd.

Nevertheless, because he has both the misguided notion that people just don’t ‘understand him’ and the misguided belief that running again would demonstrate some sort of determination, I suspect that he will mount a short, but ineffective campaign.

ODDS:
Sen. Kerry gets in the race—10/1
No comment.

Sen. Kerry wins the democratic nomination—60/1
He does understand politics, he IS well known, and if there are enough stumbles by other candidates, he could theoretically bumble his way to another victory, where he would suffer an even worse defeat against the Republican candidate than the thumping Ronald Reagan gave Walter Mondale in 1984.

* * * * * * * * * *

Al Gore

Summary:
WATCH THIS POTENTIAL CANDIDATE. Al Gore is a four time Congressman, Former Senator, Former Vice President, and popular vote winner in the general election.

He could fall into the same category as John Kerry, in that the Dems wouldn’t welcome an election loser to represent them again, but the disastrous results of the Bush administration that defeated him put him in a unique position, reminiscent of Nixon after the Kennedy defeat.

Vice President Gore smartly disappeared from the public eye, and focused on an issue that is important to him---the environment. As a result, he is completely blank on the Iraq question, AND has vast foreign AND domestic policy experience.

He has repeatedly said he has no intention to run for President, which in politispeak means “I might run.” IF the early primaries get boring, OR it looks like there’s a gap to fill, EXPECT him to mount a late campaign that will have the hallmarks of an elder statesman.

Gore has quietly reinvented himself, could win an Oscar, and would get a strange combination of the pity vote, and the “gee, I wish I’d voted in 2000” nod.

Analysis:
Gore isn’t likely to be in the race in Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada. His return to the political scene would most likely come from a quietly powerful and well organized “draft” campaign. Its biggest difficulty would come from the legal hurdles of getting on ballots across the country.

---THE FOLLOWING ANALYSIS IS WORTH THE PRICE OF ADMISSION. YOU HAVEN’T HEARD IT ANYWHERE ELSE. REMEMBER WHO SAID IT FIRST---


IF Gore decides to get back in the race late, it is the judicial branch that will make it possible. He will get the benefit of EVERY doubt in the courts, up to but EXCLUDING the Supreme Court.

As a result, he will be present on every ballot he tries to bumrush. The publicity from that series of court battles will MORE than make up for his late entry. He would be formidable for MANY reasons, particularly if he gets in too late for most of the debates. He could throw the convention into pseudo chaos by showing up late, and requesting to be heard.

Throw in the speech of his life, and the whole ball game will be up for grabs. He would steal much of Hillary’s support, Obama’s good luck, and Biden’s thunder. He’s older, wiser, smarter, and savvier. He’s battle tested, and could garner a fair amount of the will of the party.

He could win.

ODDS:
Gore gets into the race---8/1
This isn’t really a long-shot. It hinges on who’s doing well on the GOP side, and who the leader is on the Democratic side. The right combination could pull him into the race quicker than slippery snot. DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE. He’s a contender.

Gore wins the nomination—15/1
This number goes DOWN if he gets in without having to be a write-in candidate. I estimate that if he tries to get on the ballots, his odds go to roughly … 4/1.

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There you have it. Stew’s handicapping of the democratic nomination process. Stay tuned for the GOP side.

Peace,

--Stew.
(originally posted 13 Jan 07)